TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0d13…9117

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
66
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: UFC, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 57 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2040%8 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+138.6%+$138.64
Will the U.S. take over Gaza before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Trump cut military spending?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Trump releases Epstein list today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+75.4%+$30.1
Will ICE detain 800+ people on February 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+176.3%+$79.31
Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST+26.6%+$6.65
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+47.1%+$16.47
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+51.5%+$7.73
Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+51.5%+$8.82
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+36.8%+$9.2
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$50
All 20 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2025, EDT1464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+35.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
UFC — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Mitchell vs. Nurmagomedovbacked Mitchell · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT+68.3%+$18.8
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirierbacked Poirier · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
UFC 318: Johnson vs. Zellhuberbacked Johnson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+238.3%+$107.24
Muhammad vs. Della Maddalenabacked Maddalena · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$34.05
Shevchenko vs. Fiorotbacked Shevchenko · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$51
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopesbacked Volkanovski · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$23.25
Pereira vs. Ankalaevbacked Ankalaev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT+80.1%+$20.02
Hill vs. Souzabacked Hill · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2025, EST+33.3%+$5
Du Plessis vs. Stricklandbacked Strickland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$24.2
Jenkins vs. Santosbacked Jenkins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$17
Cong vs. Brasilbacked Cong · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST+30.5%+$9.14
Thicknesse vs. Topuriabacked Thicknesse · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST-100%-$26
Prochazka vs. Hillbacked Prochazka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+112.8%+$39.47
Holland vs. de Ridderbacked Holland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 14 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+117.7%+$58.86
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+58.7%+$14.68
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+31.6%+$7.89
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$25.08
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+81.2%+$72.03
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$15
Assad leaves Syria before 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST+100%+$50
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST+96.5%+$24.12
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2025, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-70.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+46.1%+$11.51
Bitcoin all time high by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$36.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2024, EDT+63.9%+$15.98
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.