Middle East · resolved market
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7b0b1e38f95c9925f2c4e04b3501b4b0d8b5a4d3d2b3b9d21dbb516c52cf32b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,907,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,106,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,907,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 513 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc830…42cabacked Yes | 12c | 125,352$15,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,007.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f6…9769backed Yes | 10c | 85,540$8,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,789.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes | 3c | 40,808$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,283.4 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…e491backed Yes | 6c | 32,699$1,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,846.53 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…924abacked Yes | 11c | 32,498$3,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,475.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fde…a324backed Yes | 6c | 31,000$1,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,853.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…d305backed Yes | 6c | 29,207$1,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,755.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc32…dc7ebacked Yes | 6c | 24,010$1,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,516.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 17cpaid | +203.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…808abacked Yes | 4c | 21,153$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 20c | 17,803$3,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,507.61 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 73c | 17,750$12,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,767.03 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 14c | 16,938$2,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,317.97 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 1c | 16,098$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.18 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfd…6e4abacked No | 80c | 15,292$12,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,078.25 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +10.0wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Yes | 3c | 15,282$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.38 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…e5c5backed Yes | 4c | 14,144$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b69…ee2ebacked Yes | 6c | 13,371$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.15 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6efebacked Yes | 3c | 13,081$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.89 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2499…b542backed Yes | 4c | 12,843$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1905…515bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,493$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed Yes | 43c | 12,047$5,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,168.54 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 11,035$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.56 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 12c | 10,746$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.28 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…1c18backed Yes | 6c | 9,272$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +108%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 8,995$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.4 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…fbeabacked No | 76c | 8,681$6,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,061.24 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…2044backed No | 53c | 8,577$4,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,070.92 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d6…9fa8backed Yes | 4c | 8,305$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.56 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…d346backed Yes | 7c | 8,252$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e99…7aeebacked Yes | 3c | 7,701$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…cb76backed Yes | 30c | 7,518$2,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,259.47 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…4897backed Yes | 3c | 7,223$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 14cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3778…e9c9backed Yes | 8c | 7,100$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf511…ad33backed Yes | 4c | 6,828$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be2…5fa6backed Yes | 2c | 6,689$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.86 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…60f7backed Yes | 11c | 6,602$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31d…36d5backed Yes | 6c | 6,481$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 6,409$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.73 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e00…b8c9backed Yes | 2c | 6,341$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37c…cd7ebacked Yes | 3c | 6,278$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 11c | 6,027$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.79 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2c7fbacked No | 70c | 5,855$4,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,766.93 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 30c | 5,735$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710.32 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c7…d648backed Yes | 2c | 5,500$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 14cpaid | +63%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd39c…8f0dbacked Yes | 6c | 5,430$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…1478backed Yes | 6c | 5,430$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 5,400$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.62 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ced…07bebacked Yes | 1c | 5,307$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 5,297$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.39 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 7c | 5,201$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.6 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…2c1abacked Yes | 8c | 5,126$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,032$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.19 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed No | 64c | 5,013$3,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,808.23 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 30c | 4,974$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.2 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4765…ca11backed Yes | 7c | 4,864$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…d63fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,754$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.51 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59bc…83b8backed Yes | 12c | 4,745$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6da…07a4backed Yes | 9c | 4,674$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…846fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,451$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a6…8c44backed Yes | 12c | 4,444$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.29 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…68cabacked Yes | 5c | 4,037$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.85 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc9…249dbacked Yes | 7c | 4,019$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf62…1ca8backed Yes | 7c | 4,003$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc26…cc42backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 62c | 3,923$2,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,494.82 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 3,922$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.25 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e6…77adbacked Yes | 3c | 3,846$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…783abacked Yes | 3c | 3,716$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4523…baa8backed Yes | 3c | 3,714$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…d597backed Yes | 12c | 3,629$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.61 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…55e8backed Yes | 6c | 3,605$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4200…7545backed Yes | 7c | 3,602$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac25…f77cbacked Yes | 9c | 3,599$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…a4c0backed Yes | 3c | 3,482$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…3990backed Yes | 5c | 3,463$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.17 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x320d…3296backed Yes | 3c | 3,444$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bb…dedebacked Yes | 3c | 3,386$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 3,376$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.41 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…e502backed Yes | 3c | 3,372$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…4ebebacked No | 66c | 3,342$2,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…520cbacked Yes | 20c | 3,033$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 40cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 11c | 3,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x929f…036cbacked Yes | 16c | 3,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…b62cbacked Yes | 17c | 2,918$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…57afbacked Yes | 5c | 2,917$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629f…6babbacked Yes | 1c | 2,915$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5889…178ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,883$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…9b78backed No | 51c | 2,875$1,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.35 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x566d…8d5abacked Yes | 3c | 2,857$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f9…f183backed Yes | 5c | 2,837$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.23 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c22…6e8ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,792$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…8f40backed Yes | 8c | 2,711$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.53 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…c65abacked Yes | 3c | 2,700$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9286…a77dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,700$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c96…3eefbacked Yes | 9c | 2,621$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf71d…7e1bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,609$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 2,588$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc6…0d19backed Yes | 4c | 2,547$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 6c | 2,538$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.68 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e81…5599backed Yes | 35c | 2,500$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.