TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,907,657
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,106,162

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,907,657 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 513 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc830…42cabacked Yes12c125,352$15,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,007.0750%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72f6…9769backed Yes10c85,540$8,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,789.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes3c40,808$1,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,283.4430%0 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1287…e491backed Yes6c32,699$1,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,846.534717%8 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1add…924abacked Yes11c32,498$3,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,475.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fde…a324backed Yes6c31,000$1,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,853.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e58…d305backed Yes6c29,207$1,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,755.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc32…dc7ebacked Yes6c24,010$1,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,516.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick17cpaid+203.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x039b…808abacked Yes4c21,153$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes20c17,803$3,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,507.617032.9%23 W · 47 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No73c17,750$12,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,767.0312038.3%46 W · 74 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes14c16,938$2,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,317.976825%17 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes1c16,098$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.188610.5%9 W · 77 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dfd…6e4abacked No80c15,292$12,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,078.253770.3%26 W · 11 L+10.0wins+0.27per pick43cpaid+109.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed Yes3c15,282$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.384415.9%7 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e57…e5c5backed Yes4c14,144$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b69…ee2ebacked Yes6c13,371$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.151717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-40.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84c3…6efebacked Yes3c13,081$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.893016.7%5 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick10cpaid+114.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2499…b542backed Yes4c12,843$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-81.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1905…515bbacked Yes0c12,493$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82b1…7579backed Yes43c12,047$5,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,168.547741.6%32 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c11,035$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.563588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes12c10,746$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.2835819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9359…1c18backed Yes6c9,272$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick24cpaid+108%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c8,995$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.41,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbf7…fbeabacked No76c8,681$6,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,061.246549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xacb0…2044backed No53c8,577$4,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,070.92825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69d6…9fa8backed Yes4c8,305$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.5670%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b6b…d346backed Yes7c8,252$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-69.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e99…7aeebacked Yes3c7,701$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9346…cb76backed Yes30c7,518$2,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,259.472114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-41.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9b2…4897backed Yes3c7,223$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200254%1 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick14cpaid-94.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3778…e9c9backed Yes8c7,100$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.560%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf511…ad33backed Yes4c6,828$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be2…5fa6backed Yes2c6,689$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.86120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38f1…60f7backed Yes11c6,602$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe31d…36d5backed Yes6c6,481$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c6,409$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.737135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e00…b8c9backed Yes2c6,341$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc37c…cd7ebacked Yes3c6,278$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.970%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes11c6,027$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.7928126.3%74 W · 207 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1424…2c7fbacked No70c5,855$4,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,766.935731.6%18 W · 39 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes30c5,735$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,710.3210435.6%37 W · 67 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa0c7…d648backed Yes2c5,500$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.51136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick14cpaid+63%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd39c…8f0dbacked Yes6c5,430$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x162f…1478backed Yes6c5,430$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes23c5,400$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,221.6289617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ced…07bebacked Yes1c5,307$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes7c5,297$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.394625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes7c5,201$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.61430.7%1 W · 142 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-92.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54e1…2c1abacked Yes8c5,126$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c5,032$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.194769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed No64c5,013$3,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,808.238641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes30c4,974$1,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492.235347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4765…ca11backed Yes7c4,864$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355140%0 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b79…d63fbacked Yes2c4,754$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.514827.1%13 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59bc…83b8backed Yes12c4,745$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6da…07a4backed Yes9c4,674$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440170%0 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a47…846fbacked Yes2c4,451$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.482231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3a6…8c44backed Yes12c4,444$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.291060%6 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+66.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa7d2…68cabacked Yes5c4,037$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.851233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bc9…249dbacked Yes7c4,019$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf62…1ca8backed Yes7c4,003$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc26…cc42backed Yes3c4,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No62c3,923$2,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,494.8231649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes7c3,922$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.252476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x25e6…77adbacked Yes3c3,846$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ddd…783abacked Yes3c3,716$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4523…baa8backed Yes3c3,714$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88f0…d597backed Yes12c3,629$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.61100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58ac…55e8backed Yes6c3,605$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216220%0 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4200…7545backed Yes7c3,602$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250220%0 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac25…f77cbacked Yes9c3,599$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.62540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x373e…a4c0backed Yes3c3,482$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3176…3990backed Yes5c3,463$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.176111.5%7 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x320d…3296backed Yes3c3,444$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75bb…dedebacked Yes3c3,386$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes7c3,376$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.414195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd73b…e502backed Yes3c3,372$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9690%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc31d…4ebebacked No66c3,342$2,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,137.441154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe57d…520cbacked Yes20c3,033$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick40cpaid-47.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Yes11c3,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3305431.5%17 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x929f…036cbacked Yes16c3,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72df…b62cbacked Yes17c2,918$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5101216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick23cpaid+15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c7…57afbacked Yes5c2,917$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629f…6babbacked Yes1c2,915$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.01180%0 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5889…178ebacked Yes3c2,883$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x36d7…9b78backed No51c2,875$1,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.353951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x566d…8d5abacked Yes3c2,857$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26f9…f183backed Yes5c2,837$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.231838.9%7 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick27cpaid-14.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c22…6e8ebacked Yes4c2,792$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91ff…8f40backed Yes8c2,711$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.532035%7 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab5…c65abacked Yes3c2,700$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7570%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9286…a77dbacked Yes8c2,700$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.970%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c96…3eefbacked Yes9c2,621$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2302540%10 W · 15 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+105.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf71d…7e1bbacked Yes8c2,609$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb79f…d749backed Yes1c2,588$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.44660%0 W · 66 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fc6…0d19backed Yes4c2,547$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+72.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes6c2,538$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.681442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e81…5599backed Yes35c2,500$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8755418.5%10 W · 44 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.