Us Politics · resolved market
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed85b5d16739e076cd5cc3a705467df14abc2f23d1b16ae26cd660e8e0b38c54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,824,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,912,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,824,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 591 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x696e…7593backed No | 1c | 2,326,729$24,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,833.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…0e84backed No | 1c | 210,399$2,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,491.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc256…c7b9backed No | 4c | 184,088$7,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,346.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…913ebacked No | 5c | 176,005$8,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,237.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 72c | 130,076$93,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93,925.15 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 73c | 105,392$77,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,367.97 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1a…a81cbacked No | 7c | 100,337$6,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,730.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf1…8428backed Yes | 32c | 96,126$30,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65,365.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb53f…8707backed No | 68c | 96,126$65,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65,365.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 0c | 84,833$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.02 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2788…9e4abacked No | 7c | 81,555$5,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,362.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…b2ffbacked No | 2c | 80,000$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…1025backed No | 44c | 77,265$33,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,996.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…445fbacked Yes | 56c | 77,265$43,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,996.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…616cbacked Yes | 59c | 73,872$43,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,431.07 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +92%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 0c | 70,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe82…8219backed No | 1c | 64,560$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…9af7backed No | 48c | 53,000$25,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,394.51 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…9971backed No | 74c | 49,122$36,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,428.92 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…375ebacked No | 2c | 48,919$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd23…0242backed No | 3c | 48,290$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366.04 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb404…0a05backed No | 0c | 47,816$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61db…90c5backed No | 2c | 42,866$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 65c | 39,385$25,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,593.58 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb7…f680backed No | 0c | 39,313$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…a726backed No | 33c | 38,241$12,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,672.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 71c | 34,715$24,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,060.33 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed No | 66c | 34,395$22,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,727.19 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 31cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x95d6…9aeabacked No | 1c | 32,430$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ec…f99ebacked No | 5c | 29,946$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86d…ac82backed No | 9c | 29,406$2,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,608.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 4c | 28,677$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.01 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 32c | 27,829$8,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,864.12 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 34c | 26,008$8,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,273.38 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 0c | 25,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…ac84backed No | 1c | 24,115$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.55 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…b0fabacked No | 69c | 22,984$15,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,919.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 54c | 22,188$11,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,235.13 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 1c | 21,444$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.87 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…6abebacked No | 0c | 20,922$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b9…1a27backed Yes | 61c | 20,615$12,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,016.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x760e…fec9backed No | 0c | 20,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed Yes | 64c | 19,383$12,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,033.33 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…f4e2backed No | 9c | 19,024$1,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,651 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3771…fdf3backed No | 7c | 17,946$1,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x171f…95fbbacked No | 27c | 17,439$4,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,718.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed No | 46c | 15,928$7,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,344.49 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe645…2ed2backed No | 12c | 15,786$1,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,857.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…3567backed Yes | 32c | 15,605$4,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,619 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5923…a3f7backed No | 0c | 15,583$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed No | 4c | 15,220$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.4 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 77c | 14,828$11,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,460.55 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…a8b2backed No | 5c | 13,396$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 31c | 13,000$4,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,091.53 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 55c | 12,884$7,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,074.16 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 24c | 12,697$3,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,631.61 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 48c | 12,672$6,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,553.38 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…2adbbacked No | 77c | 12,671$9,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,729.76 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a27…f038backed No | 4c | 12,600$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked No | 3c | 12,187$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.98 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e2…1e8dbacked No | 1c | 11,603$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…0df5backed No | 8c | 11,266$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…7acdbacked No | 1c | 10,985$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 10c | 10,880$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.83 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 33c | 10,751$3,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,194.33 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 3c | 10,400$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…b654backed No | 1c | 10,330$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4b…4382backed No | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed No | 10c | 9,747$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.75 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x863f…8775backed Yes | 25c | 9,625$2,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,258.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +47%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked No | 16c | 9,537$1,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,484.12 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 64c | 9,492$6,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,376.54 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 33c | 9,471$3,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,301.97 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked No | 4c | 9,310$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.25 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed No | 2c | 9,254$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.33 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed No | 19c | 9,002$1,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,708.05 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked No | 7c | 9,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 16c | 8,939$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,468.31 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969b…7f79backed No | 5c | 8,739$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8352…d51abacked No | 69c | 8,468$5,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,841.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 63c | 7,912$5,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,907.38 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1511…ce9fbacked No | 1c | 7,882$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x649e…50f0backed No | 13c | 7,573$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…2035backed No | 60c | 7,235$4,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,326.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 74c | 7,124$5,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,866.93 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 0c | 7,055$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca5…52a2backed No | 70c | 6,973$4,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,877.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 33c | 6,907$2,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,632.35 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed No | 9c | 6,890$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 16c | 6,653$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.09 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…8f8bbacked No | 23c | 6,329$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,429.61 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x023f…c142backed No | 1c | 6,179$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +130.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 8c | 6,155$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.19 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked No | 42c | 6,092$2,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,563.64 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked No | 54c | 5,921$3,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,223.19 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…6bcfbacked No | 9c | 5,566$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8e6dbacked No | 1c | 5,541$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…9b16backed No | 6c | 5,496$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.13 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked No | 59c | 5,300$3,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,153.02 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…1e17backed No | 1c | 5,167$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.