TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,824,902
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,912,637

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,824,902 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 591 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x696e…7593backed No1c2,326,729$24,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,833.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a4c…0e84backed No1c210,399$2,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,491.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc256…c7b9backed No4c184,088$7,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,346.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1399…913ebacked No5c176,005$8,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,237.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No72c130,076$93,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93,925.157458.1%43 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes73c105,392$77,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,367.976145.9%28 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb1a…a81cbacked No7c100,337$6,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,730.7940%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdf1…8428backed Yes32c96,126$30,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,365.68333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+4.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb53f…8707backed No68c96,126$65,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,365.6820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed No0c84,833$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.029248.9%45 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2788…9e4abacked No7c81,555$5,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,362.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ce0…b2ffbacked No2c80,000$1,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2722737%10 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7da5…1025backed No44c77,265$33,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,996.640%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b8c…445fbacked Yes56c77,265$43,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,996.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+92.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe036…616cbacked Yes59c73,872$43,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,431.073060%18 W · 12 L+5.3wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+92%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No0c70,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708134.6%28 W · 53 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe82…8219backed No1c64,560$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c91…9af7backed No48c53,000$25,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,394.511540%6 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e96…9971backed No74c49,122$36,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,428.921717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe405…375ebacked No2c48,919$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd23…0242backed No3c48,290$1,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,366.04812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-76.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb404…0a05backed No0c47,816$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61db…90c5backed No2c42,866$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes65c39,385$25,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,593.586442.2%27 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb7…f680backed No0c39,313$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.59333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d60…a726backed No33c38,241$12,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,672.15520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-74%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes71c34,715$24,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,060.3315155%83 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x133b…2f22backed No66c34,395$22,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,727.194247.6%20 W · 22 L+6.9wins+0.17per pick31cpaid+68.8%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x95d6…9aeabacked No1c32,430$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.69616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99ec…f99ebacked No5c29,946$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf86d…ac82backed No9c29,406$2,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,608.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed No4c28,677$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.016221%13 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes32c27,829$8,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,864.1210749.5%53 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes34c26,008$8,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,273.3811940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No0c25,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf743…ac84backed No1c24,115$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.551952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c42…b0fabacked No69c22,984$15,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,919.64425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-64.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked Yes54c22,188$11,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,235.133727%10 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked No1c21,444$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.871216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ce8…6abebacked No0c20,922$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95b9…1a27backed Yes61c20,615$12,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,016.55475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+58.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x760e…fec9backed No0c20,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47bc…c043backed Yes64c19,383$12,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,033.331942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+1.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd205…f4e2backed No9c19,024$1,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,651837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3771…fdf3backed No7c17,946$1,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,286.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x171f…95fbbacked No27c17,439$4,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,718.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-69.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed No46c15,928$7,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,344.491833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe645…2ed2backed No12c15,786$1,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,857.17540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x063d…3567backed Yes32c15,605$4,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,6191163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+56.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5923…a3f7backed No0c15,583$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.751450%7 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed No4c15,220$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.411646.6%54 W · 62 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes77c14,828$11,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,460.5517633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a9d…a8b2backed No5c13,396$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.1140%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked No31c13,000$4,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,091.5310324.3%25 W · 78 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked No55c12,884$7,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,074.165442.6%23 W · 31 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes24c12,697$3,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,631.616028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes48c12,672$6,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,553.386053.3%32 W · 28 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f3d…2adbbacked No77c12,671$9,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,729.762638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a27…f038backed No4c12,600$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked No3c12,187$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.981007%7 W · 93 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06e2…1e8dbacked No1c11,603$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f91…0df5backed No8c11,266$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.81225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-55.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b69…7acdbacked No1c10,985$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0640%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed No10c10,880$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.8315924.5%39 W · 120 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes33c10,751$3,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,194.334542.2%19 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked No3c10,400$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2676021.7%13 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6986…b654backed No1c10,330$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c4b…4382backed No0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302227.3%6 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e75…0143backed No10c9,747$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.751275%9 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+19.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x863f…8775backed Yes25c9,625$2,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,258.07450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+47%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked No16c9,537$1,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,484.129831.6%31 W · 67 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes64c9,492$6,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,376.545038%19 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes33c9,471$3,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,301.979549.5%47 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked No4c9,310$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.253721.6%8 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick10cpaid+110.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd66c…97e3backed No2c9,254$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.335726.3%15 W · 42 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+34.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed No19c9,002$1,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,708.051346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked No7c9,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6302025%5 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-57.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No16c8,939$1,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,468.3111612.9%15 W · 101 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x969b…7f79backed No5c8,739$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8352…d51abacked No69c8,468$5,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,841.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes63c7,912$5,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,907.3810347.6%49 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1511…ce9fbacked No1c7,882$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.07333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-55.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x649e…50f0backed No13c7,573$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6bc7…2035backed No60c7,235$4,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,326.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes74c7,124$5,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,866.938150.6%41 W · 40 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed No0c7,055$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.114040%16 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ca5…52a2backed No70c6,973$4,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,877.26333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick73cpaid-57.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes33c6,907$2,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,632.3514241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x008a…21a8backed No9c6,890$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.231442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked No16c6,653$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.096033.3%20 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8390…8f8bbacked No23c6,329$1,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,429.611330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-55.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x023f…c142backed No1c6,179$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+130.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No8c6,155$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.193859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x71dd…d61cbacked No42c6,092$2,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,563.645733.3%19 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked No54c5,921$3,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,223.1980%0 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2ec5…6bcfbacked No9c5,566$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dda…8e6dbacked No1c5,541$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ae…9b16backed No6c5,496$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.131729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-28%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked No59c5,300$3,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,153.024057.5%23 W · 17 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+15.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0336…1e17backed No1c5,167$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.