TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Trudeau resign Today?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,008,594
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,061,716

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,008,594 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 309 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c29…5267backed No16c58,202$9,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,411.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe330…1674backed No4c44,125$1,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,706.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x618b…c3dabacked No0c32,809$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d4d…4a91backed No0c28,219$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.22650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+55.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47bc…abd2backed No13c20,700$2,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,791.420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6433…b567backed No0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+21.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No2c19,854$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.513718.9%7 W · 30 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-52.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa301…8811backed No0c17,785$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked No0c17,108$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.962123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked No0c16,913$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.57616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed No10c15,974$1,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,669.72219.5%2 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-78.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153745.9%17 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x460d…525abacked No0c13,920$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes46c12,936$5,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,981.531145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+1,107.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Yes58c11,622$6,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,860.468529.4%25 W · 60 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5a…00f2backed No47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,700147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-68.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x133b…2f22backed No2c9,845$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.37825%2 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick11cpaid-22.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xceb8…3a80backed No0c9,840$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5724…73e5backed No29c9,563$2,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,816.0250%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed No14c8,888$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209.59633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+91.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes47c8,266$3,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,422.213050%15 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+25.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa36e…fc56backed No4c8,260$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.58425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-66.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84c6…c8c8backed Yes50c7,996$3,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,034.86425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb91c…fbeabacked No18c7,704$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,422.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67cd…7538backed No0c7,487$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked No40c7,001$2,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,831.0610037%37 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1af…d889backed No8c6,648$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.41216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-48.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed No0c6,638$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.282842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0394…3ef9backed No0c6,538$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x438e…9704backed No3c6,088$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed No21c5,758$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,208.686250%31 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes79c5,213$4,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.261250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45e0…f68abacked No3c5,167$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-70.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cff…fb2abacked No8c5,099$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.941250%6 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x060a…eaabbacked No1c5,014$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.84616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-68.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e63…9313backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd83…28f1backed No0c4,777$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked No9c4,531$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.888630.2%26 W · 60 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9e8…c443backed Yes80c3,643$2,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.11366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7960…f8a8backed Yes31c3,008$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,065.463732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87d0…57c5backed No23c3,001$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.07450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed No3c3,000$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.21421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49c…28ddbacked Yes24c2,977$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,277.222100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+240.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No6c2,890$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.64780%0 W · 78 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf470…62d2backed No1c2,769$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.551020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-60%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a3b…e3babacked No41c2,691$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2607…8b73backed No0c2,663$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.651421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-53.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x876d…5238backed No2c2,520$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x900d…2961backed No20c2,482$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No11c2,282$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.022445.8%11 W · 13 L+7.4wins+0.31per pick15cpaid+216.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xc61e…f76ebacked No15c2,263$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No40c2,134$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-78.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e27…4e9ebacked Yes66c2,080$1,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.831520%3 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No23c2,047$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.369053.3%48 W · 42 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8ef0…4cdcbacked No3c2,019$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x495f…506abacked No38c2,018$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.1860%0 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a72…3c27backed No17c1,952$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d70…640dbacked No16c1,907$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.0840%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No23c1,867$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.8120614.6%30 W · 176 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes75c1,866$1,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.726920.3%14 W · 55 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-41.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ea8…87c4backed No27c1,852$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd1d…b57fbacked No1c1,845$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.63345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No17c1,768$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.5410131.7%32 W · 69 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-36.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4470…e93bbacked No20c1,762$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.761010%1 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-85.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97de…1f83backed No24c1,684$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e8…77d2backed No6c1,668$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2846…d10dbacked No13c1,528$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd12…53fabacked No1c1,430$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes71c1,415$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.811729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf5…adbebacked No46c1,320$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.06425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80ec…fdc0backed No17c1,316$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x532b…dd2dbacked No20c1,274$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa63d…7c74backed No31c1,212$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fc…618fbacked Yes69c1,212$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked No13c1,140$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.75714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-41.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No35c1,094$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.6118036.7%66 W · 114 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae06…77e1backed Yes64c1,051$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.83540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6564…fef5backed No29c1,044$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56b2…5b2cbacked Yes77c1,042$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.541050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a85…c04bbacked No1c1,010$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.74825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes32c905.81$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.532339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+28.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes78c850$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.325832.8%19 W · 39 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+75%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x25de…794bbacked No17c832.02$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cfe…757fbacked No12c804.99$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes33c804.83$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.243823.7%9 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes76c783$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.84040%16 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x498f…7b7fbacked No17c754.24$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.821233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa71…11c7backed No47c748.11$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes53c724.13$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.995131.4%16 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+81.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb2d…dde5backed No50c699.5$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.7520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb144…c040backed No22c660.54$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes77c658.38$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.86741.8%28 W · 39 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+7.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2e91…e8a9backed No17c638.2$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No59c604.45$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.681,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e3…2df0backed Yes17c604.26$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+160.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ef7…3b22backed Yes79c580$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.44540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+106.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df8…5907backed Yes66c576.95$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac1…a45ebacked No26c566.1$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c91…3a9ebacked No72c555$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No21c551.02$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.717335.6%26 W · 47 L+15.3wins+0.21per pick15cpaid+188.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.