TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will ICE detain 800+ people on February 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,398
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,225

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,398 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c11,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eee…782bbacked Yes3c1,466$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed Yes65c1,443$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.66837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick68cpaid-42.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No34c1,121$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.4414135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf5e…4168backed Yes44c800.78$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.152025%5 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No33c648.95$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.2410347.6%49 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e16…84d7backed Yes11c371.85$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.211631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+39.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x900d…2961backed No55c367.13$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.99450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes35c356.79$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.941,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x712c…de39backed Yes11c291$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.191421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-65.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes39c245.7$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.533859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No33c199.94$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.9616943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe224…0ab2backed Yes12c175$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+90%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked Yes14c151$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.147943%34 W · 45 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa756…849bbacked Yes13c135$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16a…3c93backed No38c132.23$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.293740.5%15 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8524…d2b0backed Yes11c125$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+138.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d13…9117backed Yes16c123.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202040%8 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked No72c103.99$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6813145.8%60 W · 71 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+6.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x551c…a9c2backed No60c99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8652…78a6backed Yes12c96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+138.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No22c94.41$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.648143.2%35 W · 46 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec51…e1b6backed Yes11c94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+243.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb319…c5bbbacked Yes12c93$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4765…e69bbacked No40c90$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+152.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x288d…dc1dbacked Yes12c88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.56333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee21…8416backed Yes13c87$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f75…df23backed No74c85$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59e9…9283backed Yes14c84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5397…fcf7backed Yes70c78$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+117.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6341…5b26backed No48c74$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+109.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f75…9fdbbacked No30c74$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78f9…9249backed No30c71$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2329…3a05backed Yes77c67$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d9c…8862backed No23c67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9225…a33fbacked Yes64c65$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe649…9397backed Yes53c64$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c8c…067dbacked Yes70c63$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cdc…248abacked Yes71c62$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8429…64bdbacked Yes78c60$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b09…75f8backed No47c59$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d49…5798backed Yes71c56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5905…41abbacked Yes70c55$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.520%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7687…da87backed No63c55$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x71fe…1461backed Yes42c54$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60b9…9976backed No58c51$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2337740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3ee…1f72backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0269…abadbacked Yes71c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ee…dc5dbacked No23c49$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2ca…ab71backed No29c44$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8404…2c77backed Yes71c44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.24250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick72cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x907c…7947backed No29c44$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5174…ea6cbacked Yes32c44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b4…ff00backed Yes77c43$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8701…76dbbacked No60c43$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9eb…0ee5backed No74c41.13$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x419a…0fbebacked Yes71c41$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5244…7cb2backed No29c41$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6c2…b254backed Yes71c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bfc…d701backed No29c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+435.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9a5…6638backed No29c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93ed…06cfbacked Yes71c39$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf613…b732backed No78c39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x304f…f5febacked Yes71c37$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fb6…10d5backed Yes71c33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3945…8d8fbacked No35c31.43$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce80…7043backed No47c31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3093…2dcebacked No56c31$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d58…0e7fbacked Yes71c31$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b7…3be0backed Yes53c29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f84…0d30backed Yes71c28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.88250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x938b…acf6backed Yes67c27.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc65b…51fabacked Yes77c27$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d9c…7b90backed Yes53c26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e72…9938backed Yes70c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No61c22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.587447.3%35 W · 39 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa33b…b936backed Yes71c21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcec…d792backed Yes70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fdd…425fbacked Yes71c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa541…8a0dbacked No79c17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…d1dabacked No60c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd125…30e7backed Yes70c17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4907…031cbacked Yes76c17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9220%0 W · 2 L-1.6wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x27c6…a1e4backed Yes77c16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x200b…ccaabacked Yes77c16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7c1…170fbacked No69c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.