UFC · resolved market
Thicknesse vs. Topuria
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x732b7f39b9125d0ad080bd1c46f0cefc6a553594da3d4a9adb57fbefa76f0272
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Topuriaof Thicknesse, Topuria
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3503…b8babacked Topuria | 74c | 41,821$31,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,683.04 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Thicknesse | 25c | 19,999$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,999.75 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecdf…6c07backed Topuria | 76c | 12,506$9,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,033.84 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef38…ae8cbacked Thicknesse | 25c | 11,490$2,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,907.62 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Thicknesse | 25c | 5,110$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.5 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Thicknesse | 27c | 5,013$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9c…7e44backed Thicknesse | 24c | 5,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3291…e502backed Thicknesse | 25c | 5,000$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.98 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…fe87backed Thicknesse | 26c | 4,722$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…2d92backed Thicknesse | 27c | 3,333$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Topuria | 77c | 3,250$2,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.49 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Thicknesse | 25c | 2,982$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.5 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Thicknesse | 24c | 1,610$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.48 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Thicknesse | 27c | 1,464$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.6 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb1…4253backed Topuria | 75c | 1,420$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…711abacked Topuria | 74c | 1,401$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.91 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x939f…e516backed Topuria | 76c | 1,314$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Thicknesse | 13c | 1,257$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Topuria | 75c | 1,181$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.94 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c27…f6f9backed Thicknesse | 24c | 1,056$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.29 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Thicknesse | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f8…4dc3backed Topuria | 75c | 800.47$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.12 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Topuria | 75c | 660$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Topuria | 76c | 588$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.12 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c2…553abacked Topuria | 75c | 509.49$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfa…f1b6backed Thicknesse | 27c | 508.13$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Topuria | 75c | 501.94$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.66 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Thicknesse | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked Topuria | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Thicknesse | 25c | 499.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Topuria | 74c | 499.99$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 60cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Topuria | 75c | 480$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf725…136abacked Topuria | 77c | 430.44$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.25 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…7f09backed Thicknesse | 22c | 421.27$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.68 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Topuria | 74c | 414.6$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.18 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed Topuria | 73c | 406.6$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Thicknesse | 26c | 401$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.26 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Thicknesse | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff2…2602backed Thicknesse | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Thicknesse | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Topuria | 75c | 333.33$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Thicknesse | 21c | 270.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3312…9299backed Topuria | 74c | 267.75$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.61 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…c9b3backed Thicknesse | 26c | 230.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 97 | 37.1%36 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked Thicknesse | 24c | 229.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Thicknesse | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…f722backed Thicknesse | 25c | 201.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8a…64b7backed Topuria | 75c | 196.29$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.07 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 59cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60ff…5ec3backed Thicknesse | 27c | 188.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Topuria | 76c | 158$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Thicknesse | 13c | 155$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…9117backed Thicknesse | 21c | 124.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Thicknesse | 25c | 119.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Topuria | 74c | 116.84$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Thicknesse | 21c | 114.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Thicknesse | 21c | 113.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3819…f3d1backed Topuria | 73c | 102.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x513d…02e7backed Thicknesse | 26c | 101.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Thicknesse | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e4…fd34backed Thicknesse | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65e…1502backed Topuria | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8c…890fbacked Topuria | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f0…e173backed Thicknesse | 25c | 99.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Thicknesse | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…359abacked Thicknesse | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…f90fbacked Thicknesse | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc633…b4e7backed Thicknesse | 27c | 68.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb68d…f913backed Topuria | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Topuria | 76c | 63.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe40…2f99backed Thicknesse | 26c | 58.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09cb…b1b6backed Thicknesse | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Topuria | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc955…059bbacked Thicknesse | 22c | 50.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed Thicknesse | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…55bcbacked Thicknesse | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44b4…be60backed Thicknesse | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00c…b941backed Topuria | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c37…a691backed Topuria | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0dc…84e0backed Topuria | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…a744backed Thicknesse | 27c | 49.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Topuria | 79c | 48.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc610…ef8ebacked Topuria | 79c | 44.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21cf…d668backed Thicknesse | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 39cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4d…79dabacked Thicknesse | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36e…fc56backed Topuria | 79c | 36.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Topuria | 79c | 33.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b34…b5b5backed Topuria | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87b7…1be6backed Topuria | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…4acebacked Topuria | 75c | 22.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94aa…ec9abacked Topuria | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…8715backed Topuria | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Topuria | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe7…9563backed Topuria | 75c | 17.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb1…b972backed Topuria | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9433…0236backed Topuria | 77c | 15.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb7…beebbacked Topuria | 79c | 15.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aee…bc95backed Topuria | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ac…60b5backed Topuria | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Topuria | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thicknesse vs. Topuriathis page
- Cong vs. BrasilCong won
- Du Plessis vs. StricklandDu Plessis won
- Jenkins vs. SantosSantos won
- Matthews vs. PradoMatthews won
- Nolan vs. BorshchevNolan won
- Tafa vs. TeixeiraTeixeira won
- Weili vs. SuarezWeili won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.