TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Thicknesse vs. Topuria

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Topuriaof Thicknesse, Topuria
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$85,426
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$87,461

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,426 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3503…b8babacked Topuria74c41,821$31,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,683.042653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Thicknesse25c19,999$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.7535253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xecdf…6c07backed Topuria76c12,506$9,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,033.841353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef38…ae8cbacked Thicknesse25c11,490$2,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,907.626453.1%34 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Thicknesse25c5,110$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.535826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2bd…dce0backed Thicknesse27c5,013$1,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,353.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b9c…7e44backed Thicknesse24c5,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3291…e502backed Thicknesse25c5,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.981752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6872…fe87backed Thicknesse26c4,722$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31b6…2d92backed Thicknesse27c3,333$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9009241.3%38 W · 54 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Topuria77c3,250$2,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.4953956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eed…5a28backed Thicknesse25c2,982$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.56829.4%20 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Thicknesse24c1,610$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.4816049.4%79 W · 81 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff0…46e3backed Thicknesse27c1,464$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.63847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdb1…4253backed Topuria75c1,420$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3551060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf00f…711abacked Topuria74c1,401$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.912157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x939f…e516backed Topuria76c1,314$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7dd…1e23backed Thicknesse13c1,257$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010529.5%31 W · 74 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Topuria75c1,181$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.9414751%75 W · 72 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c27…f6f9backed Thicknesse24c1,056$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.292321.7%5 W · 18 L-5.0wins-0.22per pick43cpaid-49.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Thicknesse27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27035539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36f8…4dc3backed Topuria75c800.47$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.122334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Topuria75c660$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16539959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Topuria76c588$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.1223850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5c2…553abacked Topuria75c509.49$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dfa…f1b6backed Thicknesse27c508.13$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.8540%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Topuria75c501.94$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.6614355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Thicknesse26c500$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1306248.4%30 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b9b…a65ebacked Topuria75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1251942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Thicknesse25c499.99$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12522144.3%98 W · 123 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Topuria74c499.99$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick60cpaid+54.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Topuria75c480$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1208826.1%23 W · 65 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-38.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf725…136abacked Topuria77c430.44$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.253754.1%20 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf8…7f09backed Thicknesse22c421.27$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6814052.1%73 W · 67 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Topuria74c414.6$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.188060%48 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef5c…ae33backed Topuria73c406.6$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.13250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Thicknesse26c401$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.264134.1%14 W · 27 L-5.6wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-36.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5b0b…f9d6backed Thicknesse25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ff2…2602backed Thicknesse23c400$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926336.5%23 W · 40 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe545…a68cbacked Thicknesse25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014130.5%43 W · 98 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Topuria75c333.33$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.3335664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Thicknesse21c270.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1416247.5%77 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3312…9299backed Topuria74c267.75$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.611145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41c…c9b3backed Thicknesse26c230.77$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609737.1%36 W · 61 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd14c…17bebacked Thicknesse24c229.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.913160.3%79 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x904f…50c6backed Thicknesse9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc0…f722backed Thicknesse25c201.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.392626.9%7 W · 19 L-6.2wins-0.24per pick51cpaid-52.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x4c8a…64b7backed Topuria75c196.29$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.07785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick59cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x60ff…5ec3backed Thicknesse27c188.54$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9110040%40 W · 60 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Topuria76c158$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.191770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+48.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked Thicknesse13c155$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4514129.8%42 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d13…9117backed Thicknesse21c124.75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+35.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Thicknesse25c119.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.897646.1%35 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Topuria74c116.84$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3811540%46 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Thicknesse21c114.21$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.987343.8%32 W · 41 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Thicknesse21c113.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3321031.9%67 W · 143 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3819…f3d1backed Topuria73c102.74$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.74966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x513d…02e7backed Thicknesse26c101.92$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Thicknesse22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2228743.9%126 W · 161 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43e4…fd34backed Thicknesse24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc65e…1502backed Topuria75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick47cpaid+56.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e8c…890fbacked Topuria75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255100%5 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+79.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1f0…e173backed Thicknesse25c99.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.925536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Thicknesse25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024649.6%122 W · 124 L+14.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x095f…359abacked Thicknesse25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf61f…f90fbacked Thicknesse27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202040%8 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc633…b4e7backed Thicknesse27c68.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.63831.6%12 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb68d…f913backed Topuria75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.672650%13 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Topuria76c63.86$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3352252.9%276 W · 246 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe40…2f99backed Thicknesse26c58.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155234.6%18 W · 34 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x09cb…b1b6backed Thicknesse26c57.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+35.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Topuria78c51$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.31785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick63cpaid+49.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc955…059bbacked Thicknesse22c50.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.111625%4 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x133b…2f22backed Thicknesse27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ff4…55bcbacked Thicknesse23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.54940.8%20 W · 29 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x44b4…be60backed Thicknesse22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00c…b941backed Topuria78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c37…a691backed Topuria75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84e0backed Topuria79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.56547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbff4…a744backed Thicknesse27c49.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.332548%12 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3cf…a5d4backed Topuria79c48.05$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.095870.7%41 W · 17 L+6.8wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+21.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc610…ef8ebacked Topuria79c44.38$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21cf…d668backed Thicknesse25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick39cpaid+88.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f4d…79dabacked Thicknesse26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa36e…fc56backed Topuria79c36.52$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45a1…d31fbacked Topuria79c33.6$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.021752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b34…b5b5backed Topuria76c32.89$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.894560%27 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x87b7…1be6backed Topuria76c26.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.32450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9955…4acebacked Topuria75c22.67$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.672268.2%15 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+26.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x94aa…ec9abacked Topuria78c22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dd3…8715backed Topuria75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+32%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed Topuria73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.424847.2%117 W · 131 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbe7…9563backed Topuria75c17.41$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.351526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-47.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bb1…b972backed Topuria75c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9433…0236backed Topuria77c15.9$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.662100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bb7…beebbacked Topuria79c15.03$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.16250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aee…bc95backed Topuria78c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68ac…60b5backed Topuria78c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+56.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Topuria78c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.863271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+32.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.