TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Weili vs. Suarez

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Weiliof Weili, Suarez
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$278,832
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$327,711

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $278,832 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 341 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x20bc…a3a7backed Weili50c40,571$20,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,458.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35fb…ab4dbacked Suarez51c40,009$20,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,474.181030%3 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-39%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Suarez51c27,607$14,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,214.1235253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef38…ae8cbacked Suarez55c26,700$14,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,711.956453.1%34 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Suarez0c22,329$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-55.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6872…fe87backed Weili44c17,388$7,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,805.99837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc0…f722backed Suarez57c17,335$9,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,820.422626.9%7 W · 19 L-6.2wins-0.24per pick51cpaid-52.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x0b9c…7e44backed Suarez56c8,000$4,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,479.97728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3503…b8babacked Suarez56c6,559$3,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,673.082653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xace4…bd19backed Weili48c6,250$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,249.983959%23 W · 16 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Weili43c5,050$2,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,878.535826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04a7…c0dfbacked Weili49c4,986$2,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,562.273748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c03…f77fbacked Weili43c4,578$1,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,599.412100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+192.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Weili41c4,359$1,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,571.833943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c21…69debacked Weili46c4,089$1,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,190.46875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+45.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x799c…bcefbacked Weili44c4,015$1,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,248.34560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b02…f3d9backed Suarez26c4,007$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.423435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Weili46c3,790$1,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,046.7733253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3eb…e855backed Weili44c3,179$1,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,780.472040%8 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc0…334bbacked Weili48c3,050$1,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,580.81650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Weili42c2,500$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4505653.6%30 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Suarez53c2,500$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.97771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Suarez56c2,473$1,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,384.153661.1%22 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Suarez59c2,450$1,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,445.539959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Suarez59c2,312$1,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,352.9724862.5%155 W · 93 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Weili43c2,000$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,14035539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Suarez58c2,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,160837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Weili45c1,889$853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.6910149.5%50 W · 51 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f4b…d246backed Weili44c1,699$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.69366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+55.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6524…3204backed Weili44c1,646$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.96520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-54.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79fd…8b68backed Weili43c1,524$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.4955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7dd…1e23backed Weili44c1,452$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.0310529.5%31 W · 74 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Suarez6c1,367$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.01619.8%6 W · 55 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x207a…6fecbacked Weili46c1,294$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.633548.6%17 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x61bb…e54bbacked Suarez59c1,267$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.33475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1638…339bbacked Weili48c1,221$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.69966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+71.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d70…9a6fbacked Weili48c1,194$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbffe…6492backed Weili47c1,100$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.995547.3%26 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3f8…3ef8backed Weili47c1,074$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.81560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+52.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x520a…ab8abacked Weili43c1,000$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5703148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Weili73c1,000$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2706050%30 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdb1…4253backed Suarez54c989.98$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.291060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Suarez28c955.19$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.1211540%46 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x538a…bd78backed Suarez12c900$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1123036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x465e…bf90backed Suarez56c889.73$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003638.9%14 W · 22 L-5.6wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-32.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf00f…711abacked Suarez57c872.16$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.372157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Weili47c811.99$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc567…04bfbacked Weili55c801.86$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.361650%8 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+38.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ced…b02bbacked Suarez55c778.62$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.24837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick63cpaid-41.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Weili43c768.38$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.386462.5%40 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Suarez8c748.29$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.141012%2 W · 99 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Suarez53c747.87$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.374953.1%26 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb34…59eabacked Suarez58c726.71$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.4913044.6%58 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5037…a863backed Weili42c708.85$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.8511054.5%60 W · 50 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Weili43c699$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3957233.3%24 W · 48 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61fa…4ec7backed Weili43c690.8$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.8785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick55cpaid+64.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x421e…bc7fbacked Weili44c689.12$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.121450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb010…b243backed Weili48c673.29$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.111258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaa1…4340backed Weili47c672.34$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.34450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Suarez55c655.5$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.6314751%75 W · 72 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Weili49c628.66$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.624134.1%14 W · 27 L-5.6wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-36.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x73f3…613cbacked Suarez50c605.35$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.67922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-69.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed Suarez54c600$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3244156.1%23 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe742…7559backed Weili43c585.69$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.692744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70f8…d0d5backed Suarez56c576.83$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.024151.2%21 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb521…0bd9backed Weili43c576.11$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.11650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Suarez51c574.43$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.9616247.5%77 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked Weili42c522$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.762560%15 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8d…3b13backed Weili48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2601100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Weili41c500$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29522144.3%98 W · 123 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b0b…f9d6backed Weili42c486.99$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.323240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb116…940abacked Weili49c472.61$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.03475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+32.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Weili43c465.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.126352.4%33 W · 30 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa308…9938backed Weili43c465.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.12728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4992…5b51backed Weili44c454.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.552568%17 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+53.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Suarez56c413.66$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.248060%48 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a1b…3fa3backed Weili43c406.33$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.25475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+31.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Weili44c400$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2241752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4012…a72dbacked Weili42c357.14$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+34%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b0c…935dbacked Suarez59c351.49$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.44540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Suarez58c345.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20035664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x23be…da4fbacked Weili44c340.91$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.912138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Weili46c326.09$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.0918644.1%82 W · 104 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffb0…5fa4backed Weili49c316.49$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Suarez55c314.8$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.2614355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1f0…e173backed Weili49c306.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.125536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89ae…4b0abacked Suarez23c305.29$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.81425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-58.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Suarez12c302.29$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.119124.2%22 W · 69 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-32.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Suarez57c300$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17113041.5%54 W · 76 L-9.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Weili42c300$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1748751.7%45 W · 42 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa80e…dfefbacked Weili47c294$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.96955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ba0…b494backed Weili43c290.7$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.71758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb978…a2a0backed Weili43c290$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.51435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Weili43c275$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.381770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+48.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6e0…b444backed Weili44c273.61$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked Suarez7c258.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9114129.8%42 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x769d…baa6backed Weili47c252.79$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ff2…2602backed Suarez58c250$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1456336.5%23 W · 40 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed Weili44c250$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Weili48c247.87$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.8724649.6%122 W · 124 L+14.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.