UFC · resolved market
Nolan vs. Borshchev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x578735a41f763c648915300b7242991ea7a384a2e1bad4e0d9a63995477cce5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nolanof Nolan, Borshchev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Nolan | 48c | 10,800$5,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,625.73 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3503…b8babacked Borshchev | 52c | 10,031$5,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,215.61 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef38…ae8cbacked Nolan | 48c | 8,716$4,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,538.26 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…f722backed Borshchev | 52c | 6,139$3,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,206.83 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Borshchev | 52c | 2,880$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,488.05 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Nolan | 61c | 2,316$1,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.2 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Borshchev | 37c | 2,060$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.6 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Nolan | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Borshchev | 51c | 1,073$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Borshchev | 50c | 1,072$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf725…136abacked Borshchev | 52c | 1,049$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.49 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Nolan | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Nolan | 47c | 999.84$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.92 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…fe87backed Nolan | 49c | 914.26$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Borshchev | 43c | 851$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.93 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Borshchev | 50c | 731$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.85 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…711abacked Borshchev | 53c | 727.39$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.99 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Borshchev | 57c | 638.11$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Borshchev | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c21…69debacked Nolan | 45c | 499.94$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.97 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Nolan | 72c | 450$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Nolan | 49c | 406.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.2 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Borshchev | 51c | 330.33$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.47 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Borshchev | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…ebc6backed Nolan | 49c | 273$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Borshchev | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Nolan | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35b5…9122backed Nolan | 49c | 212$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Nolan | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Nolan | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c96…f26abacked Nolan | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Borshchev | 54c | 194.26$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.9 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141a…c298backed Borshchev | 51c | 192.38$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…fc4cbacked Nolan | 73c | 160.61$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…4ff8backed Borshchev | 53c | 155$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…f44cbacked Borshchev | 33c | 152.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3819…f3d1backed Borshchev | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Borshchev | 52c | 119.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe070…a93fbacked Borshchev | 53c | 113$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3586…a2ddbacked Borshchev | 53c | 108$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e2…2f3ebacked Borshchev | 52c | 100.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Borshchev | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64cb…68edbacked Borshchev | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…92debacked Nolan | 48c | 91.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Borshchev | 55c | 90.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3312…9299backed Borshchev | 52c | 77.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…49b4backed Nolan | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7625…0f21backed Nolan | 50c | 76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b9…d123backed Nolan | 46c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Nolan | 75c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2c…c00dbacked Nolan | 49c | 51.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed Nolan | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6b…6d5bbacked Borshchev | 53c | 45.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9c…7e44backed Borshchev | 50c | 44.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad76…36adbacked Nolan | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…f90fbacked Borshchev | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…bd63backed Borshchev | 55c | 36.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x566a…881abacked Borshchev | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb715…f518backed Borshchev | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Borshchev | 49c | 30.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb20…0cf5backed Nolan | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…da7fbacked Borshchev | 55c | 30.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcde4…f179backed Nolan | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11c0…a164backed Borshchev | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9f…fd30backed Nolan | 48c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9626…6827backed Borshchev | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Borshchev | 49c | 21.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f3…f6b1backed Borshchev | 52c | 20.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nolan vs. Borshchevthis page
- Cong vs. BrasilCong won
- Du Plessis vs. StricklandDu Plessis won
- Jenkins vs. SantosSantos won
- Matthews vs. PradoMatthews won
- Tafa vs. TeixeiraTeixeira won
- Thicknesse vs. TopuriaTopuria won
- Weili vs. SuarezWeili won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.