TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Matthews vs. Prado

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Matthewsof Matthews, Prado
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$96,711
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$99,316

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,711 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0370…d000backed Prado0c23,415$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-55.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef38…ae8cbacked Prado32c20,555$6,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,487.596453.1%34 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xace4…bd19backed Prado34c15,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.983959%23 W · 16 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Matthews66c13,810$9,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,695.335253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Matthews69c12,891$8,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,971.8416049.4%79 W · 81 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc0…f722backed Matthews68c12,805$8,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,098.152626.9%7 W · 19 L-6.2wins-0.24per pick51cpaid-52.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Prado34c10,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4003943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Matthews66c5,400$3,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,836650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6872…fe87backed Prado32c4,388$1,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,413.35837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Matthews66c3,698$2,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272.4114751%75 W · 72 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Prado35c2,316$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.1335826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Matthews68c2,198$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.3417752%92 W · 85 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Prado30c1,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.9910149.5%50 W · 51 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Matthews72c1,469$1,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.1353956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed Matthews68c1,400$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44820933.5%70 W · 139 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Prado31c1,290$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40017158.5%100 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Matthews66c1,148$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.2416247.5%77 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Prado32c1,000$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.6835539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf00f…711abacked Prado28c894.99$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.62157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Matthews66c892.67$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.1414355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4326…6122backed Matthews72c839.45$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.05580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff0…46e3backed Matthews72c764.94$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.183847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe06…d5d5backed Matthews66c750$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2551478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.23per pick55cpaid+36.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x468f…c2a7backed Prado28c714.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014045.7%64 W · 76 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3cf…a5d4backed Matthews71c699.55$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.555870.7%41 W · 17 L+6.8wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+21.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Matthews65c689.18$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.168060%48 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Prado31c645.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006352.4%33 W · 30 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Prado32c600$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1925653.6%30 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb34…59eabacked Matthews68c600$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19213044.6%58 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5861…66efbacked Matthews70c569.59$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.881675%12 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7dd…1e23backed Prado32c468.75$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010529.5%31 W · 74 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86e2…2f3ebacked Matthews68c458.5$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.721361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Matthews66c442.92$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.9933253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2af9backed Prado31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005754.4%31 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x931f…d15dbacked Prado31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005954.2%32 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x23be…da4fbacked Prado32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Matthews68c310$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.236745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked Prado31c300$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9314129.8%42 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed Prado7c299.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206943.5%30 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd94…0b01backed Prado31c299.7$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.916946.4%32 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61bb…e54bbacked Matthews68c287.93$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.14475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe545…a68cbacked Prado35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014130.5%43 W · 98 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Matthews72c276.47$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7911540%46 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Matthews71c253$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.541770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+48.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x298c…3e58backed Prado33c216.97$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.65141.2%21 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70f8…d0d5backed Prado36c206.22$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754151.2%21 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3503…b8babacked Matthews66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89ae…4b0abacked Prado11c200$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-58.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Prado34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6813041.5%54 W · 76 L-9.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe742…7559backed Prado33c181.82$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ba0…b494backed Matthews71c168.94$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.991758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd7…7575backed Prado31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503324.2%8 W · 25 L-5.3wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8a1b…3fa3backed Matthews70c150$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+31.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7425…4028backed Prado35c148$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a4e…1370backed Matthews74c145$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdbe…d11cbacked Matthews66c113.64$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.643262.5%20 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+27.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Matthews66c110.3$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.556450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3819…f3d1backed Matthews68c110.29$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.29966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe327…ec05backed Matthews68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-29.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Prado32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321012%2 W · 99 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Matthews64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3648749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7cd…126cbacked Prado32c88.52$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.191729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ed9…8a62backed Prado35c85.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x396a…e1e4backed Prado35c85.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf817…d868backed Matthews67c81$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…e75fbacked Prado33c81$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Matthews65c79.7$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8928743.9%126 W · 161 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43e4…fd34backed Prado35c70$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.52835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x58a6…0c49backed Prado33c65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51f6…4112backed Matthews67c65$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed Matthews64c61.83$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9924847.2%117 W · 131 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc955…059bbacked Prado36c60.86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.611625%4 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62b4…bb83backed Prado24c58.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x538a…bd78backed Prado33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.53036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Prado30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159950.5%50 W · 49 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24d2…92c5backed Matthews70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x695c…56bbbacked Prado33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad06…80edbacked Matthews67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b9c…7e44backed Matthews62c48.76$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.53728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a7c…20ecbacked Prado36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2730…63eebacked Matthews64c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.32462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcde4…f179backed Matthews66c37.88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.885742.1%24 W · 33 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x38e2…9455backed Matthews64c33$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x558c…c65fbacked Prado33c31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4008…e415backed Matthews67c31$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7358…ab52backed Prado33c31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe468…80fcbacked Matthews67c31$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9955…4acebacked Matthews66c30.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.32268.2%15 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+26.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x03f3…f6b1backed Matthews70c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x095f…359abacked Prado35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad76…36adbacked Matthews68c29.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.41683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick60cpaid+31%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1df2…49b4backed Matthews69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.994548.9%22 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefb4…9653backed Matthews70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.576563.1%41 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf61f…f90fbacked Matthews71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.172040%8 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Matthews73c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7521031.9%67 W · 143 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Matthews70c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.633948.1%163 W · 176 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x96f0…f50bbacked Matthews64c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60dd…4df2backed Matthews69c23.62$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.322556%14 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9987…5cd9backed Matthews64c23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eac…a930backed Matthews64c22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.