TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump cut military spending?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$230,118
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$203,135

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $230,118 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f62…950ebacked Yes64c16,738$10,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,695.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No78c13,538$10,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,972.098450%42 W · 42 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes8c10,212$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.0813029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011419.3%22 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c8,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16580%0 W · 58 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No34c7,873$2,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,203.4411848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5d7a…b5f7backed Yes14c6,504$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.042825%7 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-42%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes30c6,421$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,950.2537533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes39c6,295$2,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,439.339549.5%47 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x020b…d13cbacked No73c6,133$4,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,653.911283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcfb…e789backed Yes38c5,313$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-79.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes23c4,169$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.4969634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x449f…913bbacked No71c3,837$2,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.911546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked Yes49c3,756$1,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,826.446354%34 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes13c3,671$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.5128320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cd7…0643backed Yes10c3,513$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3552544%11 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5e2…e599backed No69c3,315$2,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.816634.8%23 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes20c2,951$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.053818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c2,677$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.712400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c2,631$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.741,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ba…5933backed Yes25c2,536$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.72933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes25c2,381$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.599629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb431…0c91backed Yes36c2,300$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.92812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick28cpaid-60.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed No70c2,250$1,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.58843.2%38 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes34c2,235$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.0215332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdad6…b754backed Yes9c1,940$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.341435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid-17.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes31c1,860$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.8710324.3%25 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes21c1,813$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.677331.5%23 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No73c1,691$1,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.5617633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x442b…5410backed No58c1,669$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.43425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes38c1,532$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.416854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes12c1,484$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.5319435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe18c…d678backed Yes36c1,408$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0dde…94c3backed No59c1,403$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.873161.3%19 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes31c1,375$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4304332.6%14 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes3c1,204$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.073148.4%15 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+73.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x17aa…cb3dbacked Yes42c1,202$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick41cpaid-74.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Yes36c1,147$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.944434.1%15 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3030…16bbbacked Yes14c1,135$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.2960%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe77e…bb3dbacked Yes22c1,094$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.673423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked Yes7c1,000$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.594522.2%10 W · 35 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-58%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa55f…c3d6backed Yes16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+104.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x81a1…8483backed Yes51c980.59$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+51.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x49b5…d249backed Yes18c972.25$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.653333.3%11 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b87…274cbacked Yes2c957.79$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.471435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7d1…8749backed Yes23c800$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1862352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99d7…d918backed Yes16c765.27$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.817432.4%24 W · 50 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4526…4693backed Yes14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22cc…ef97backed Yes16c667$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.727129.6%21 W · 50 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+52.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf11f…df5cbacked No61c655.94$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.941346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes42c633.48$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.123859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ef1…4fa2backed No68c603.35$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+147.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4392…68c3backed No69c600.1$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.03988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick65cpaid+40.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes25c600$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14715227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes12c600$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8d…f2c7backed Yes35c565.71$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…8e3bbacked Yes22c549.98$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.9960%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes30c527.05$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.0213525.9%35 W · 100 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef10…4c13backed No72c519.25$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.25944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f0…e173backed No65c499.99$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1752927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-36.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a44…6d3fbacked Yes37c485.14$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.932846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed No62c477.39$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.487562.7%47 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes26c439$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.936432.8%21 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No66c434.76$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.0616725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes5c419.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.82154.2%9 W · 206 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8c9…63f1backed Yes26c401.62$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.94520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb869…c4c6backed Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-72.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes24c399.99$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9615924.5%39 W · 120 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf54e…0950backed No66c399.98$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6718…80d1backed Yes26c390$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.75328.3%15 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a3d…615ebacked Yes26c374.85$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.112817.9%5 W · 23 L-4.7wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-59.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x20f7…aba0backed Yes46c373.06$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1701154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf0d…c7bebacked No55c360.71$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.712835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3b8…bb87backed Yes14c357$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.98450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+30.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x115d…2aa7backed Yes44c349.99$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.252343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No69c347.04$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.7537740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf9e…e286backed Yes33c306.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.741225%3 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-66.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes39c302.28$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.0317021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed No59c301.52$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.622360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed No55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1358150.6%41 W · 40 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c87…f49ebacked No67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe900…6cdcbacked Yes14c300$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.254025%10 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf896…fb41backed No68c287.77$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc7b…5824backed Yes35c282$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed No75c250.96$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.3111940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb15d…2851backed No53c245$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd222…fbf6backed Yes41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-44.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae72…96bcbacked No64c234.92$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x15a9…e300backed Yes46c217.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe006…7ee1backed No73c201.07$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.061952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Yes38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766357.1%36 W · 27 L+8.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+59.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x38b2…1a2dbacked Yes24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c1c…4405backed Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c43…cbaebacked Yes31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe34a…5e71backed No76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-53.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes37c198.66$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9912643.7%55 W · 71 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed No74c183.85$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.84163.4%26 W · 15 L+7.8wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+57.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3210…0fc4backed Yes34c178.5$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.69425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No68c155.06$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4831840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e2…9629backed No66c150.26$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.66944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-41.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.