UFC · resolved market
Shahbazyan vs. Budka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf64881ce446a8def75048bc689edf3beb41fd04ae9b9712acb7bacc4d3073ff0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shahbazyanof Shahbazyan, Budka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Budka | 19c | 31,070$5,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,837.06 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Budka | 23c | 3,058$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.49 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Budka | 13c | 2,885$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.05 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Shahbazyan | 78c | 2,199$1,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.09 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace4…bd19backed Shahbazyan | 76c | 1,751$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.32 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Budka | 20c | 1,376$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.21 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…28b4backed Budka | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Shahbazyan | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Budka | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Budka | 14c | 999.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef38…ae8cbacked Budka | 22c | 999.98$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Shahbazyan | 79c | 997.99$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.58 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Budka | 20c | 710$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Shahbazyan | 78c | 693.65$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.6 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Budka | 20c | 505$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Budka | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Shahbazyan | 75c | 450$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.6 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Budka | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Shahbazyan | 75c | 317.5$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.73 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Budka | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed Shahbazyan | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc955…059bbacked Budka | 26c | 223$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Budka | 19c | 209.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…2d92backed Budka | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…126cbacked Budka | 18c | 190.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Shahbazyan | 74c | 182$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…31a7backed Budka | 20c | 102$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Shahbazyan | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaedb…3de3backed Budka | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Shahbazyan | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Budka | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Shahbazyan | 75c | 72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Budka | 20c | 68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbe…d11cbacked Shahbazyan | 78c | 57.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Shahbazyan | 77c | 56.52$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bf…c049backed Budka | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Budka | 22c | 49.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x396a…e1e4backed Budka | 23c | 47.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Shahbazyan | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59f5…7cfdbacked Shahbazyan | 76c | 25.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…0651backed Shahbazyan | 77c | 17.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shahbazyan vs. Budkathis page
- Avila vs. CavalcantiCavalcanti won
- Bonfim vs. SadykhovSadykhov won
- Bonfim vs. WilliamsBonfim won
- Cannonier vs. RodriguesCannonier won
- Estevam vs. AguilarEstevam won
- Hill vs. SouzaHill won
- Kattar vs. ZalalZalal won
- Matthews vs. DelgadoDelgado won
- Morales vs. SmithSmith won
- Vieira vs. PetroskiPetroski won
- Walker vs. MayesWalker won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.