UFC · resolved market
Avila vs. Cavalcanti
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaff36984061d453499ca76b62edab7819325165817116703fff2a291f884f03b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavalcantiof Avila, Cavalcanti
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $250,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $347,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $250,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Avila | 1c | 110,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Avila | 0c | 10,100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Avila | 15c | 4,551$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.61 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…993ebacked Avila | 13c | 3,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Avila | 3c | 1,733$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Avila | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…28b4backed Avila | 16c | 999.98$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…941abacked Avila | 15c | 900$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Avila | 15c | 750.67$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Avila | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Avila | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc955…059bbacked Avila | 19c | 450$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b4…db29backed Avila | 19c | 214.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Avila | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed Avila | 14c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Avila | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Avila | 12c | 95.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Avila | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avila vs. Cavalcantithis page
- Bonfim vs. SadykhovSadykhov won
- Bonfim vs. WilliamsBonfim won
- Cannonier vs. RodriguesCannonier won
- Estevam vs. AguilarEstevam won
- Hill vs. SouzaHill won
- Kattar vs. ZalalZalal won
- Matthews vs. DelgadoDelgado won
- Morales vs. SmithSmith won
- Shahbazyan vs. BudkaShahbazyan won
- Vieira vs. PetroskiPetroski won
- Walker vs. MayesWalker won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.