UFC · resolved market
Estevam vs. Aguilar
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc496d6fc56056298f0fd3977acb7d4de7515abbd666b686b3b032689c159a9a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Estevamof Estevam, Aguilar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Aguilar | 21c | 4,050$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Aguilar | 12c | 3,342$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.77 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Aguilar | 17c | 2,595$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.04 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Aguilar | 9c | 2,385$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.63 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Aguilar | 12c | 1,699$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Aguilar | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a23…a9f8backed Aguilar | 17c | 1,400$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Estevam | 78c | 1,148$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.76 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…28b4backed Aguilar | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Aguilar | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Aguilar | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Estevam | 77c | 728.49$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.85 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…941abacked Aguilar | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed Aguilar | 6c | 543.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Aguilar | 18c | 467.34$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.12 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Aguilar | 24c | 425.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc955…059bbacked Aguilar | 23c | 297$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.14 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Aguilar | 19c | 274.85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Aguilar | 10c | 250$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Estevam | 78c | 232.11$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b34…b5b5backed Aguilar | 19c | 173.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Aguilar | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Aguilar | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Aguilar | 16c | 133$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Aguilar | 12c | 122.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…9a24backed Estevam | 78c | 93.08$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Aguilar | 17c | 68.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60dd…4df2backed Aguilar | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed Estevam | 76c | 40.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 59cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76aa…ddd3backed Estevam | 79c | 36.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a81…375fbacked Estevam | 74c | 32.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bf…af9cbacked Estevam | 77c | 30.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc277…aeb4backed Estevam | 75c | 29.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd304…265abacked Estevam | 80c | 25.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…f2d2backed Estevam | 77c | 25.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9f…45d2backed Estevam | 77c | 24.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3193…2973backed Estevam | 77c | 24.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d8…52d7backed Estevam | 80c | 23.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0c…4fbfbacked Estevam | 77c | 22.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca63…8b91backed Estevam | 76c | 21.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7130…8157backed Estevam | 77c | 20.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073b…1454backed Estevam | 77c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f01…7985backed Estevam | 77c | 19.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe70…53b3backed Estevam | 77c | 19.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15e…f077backed Estevam | 76c | 19.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a93…fa08backed Estevam | 78c | 18.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Estevam | 73c | 18.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc09f…cc4abacked Estevam | 77c | 18.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34df…47f6backed Estevam | 78c | 16.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb010…1151backed Estevam | 77c | 16.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a3…4b56backed Estevam | 77c | 16.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x352d…81a5backed Estevam | 77c | 15.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc5…718fbacked Estevam | 78c | 15.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3cf…28f8backed Estevam | 75c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e52…0bb3backed Estevam | 77c | 15.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36a9…9f4bbacked Estevam | 77c | 15.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…6041backed Estevam | 77c | 14.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…f125backed Estevam | 77c | 14.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Estevam vs. Aguilarthis page
- Avila vs. CavalcantiCavalcanti won
- Bonfim vs. SadykhovSadykhov won
- Bonfim vs. WilliamsBonfim won
- Cannonier vs. RodriguesCannonier won
- Hill vs. SouzaHill won
- Kattar vs. ZalalZalal won
- Matthews vs. DelgadoDelgado won
- Morales vs. SmithSmith won
- Shahbazyan vs. BudkaShahbazyan won
- Vieira vs. PetroskiPetroski won
- Walker vs. MayesWalker won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.