UFC · resolved market
Vieira vs. Petroski
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16103d6848e70985a796c173d83c94ccdc553be9b6632293ac24b40933eb3a0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Petroskiof Vieira, Petroski
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef38…ae8cbacked Vieira | 72c | 61,560$44,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,231.39 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Petroski | 28c | 48,245$13,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,734.24 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…7595backed Petroski | 28c | 5,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,600 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +80%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Petroski | 30c | 3,050$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,145 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Petroski | 25c | 1,800$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.9 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Vieira | 77c | 1,533$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.7 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Petroski | 28c | 1,340$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.79 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Vieira | 11c | 1,100$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.92 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Petroski | 27c | 1,100$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…28b4backed Petroski | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Petroski | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Petroski | 31c | 998.41$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.9 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Petroski | 21c | 905$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…941abacked Petroski | 30c | 869.86$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Petroski | 29c | 863$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.73 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Petroski | 30c | 656.34$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.34 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Vieira | 69c | 619.23$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.27 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Vieira | 69c | 599$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.29 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Petroski | 29c | 517.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.24 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc84…3e67backed Petroski | 29c | 513.79$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Petroski | 29c | 500$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Petroski | 64c | 466.64$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.64 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…8f2bbacked Vieira | 72c | 417.03$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Petroski | 29c | 415$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.65 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Vieira | 69c | 411.94$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.69 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Vieira | 69c | 390$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.5 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Vieira | 68c | 381.64$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Petroski | 29c | 350$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.5 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Vieira | 71c | 344.69$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.73 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc955…059bbacked Petroski | 32c | 319$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.11 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Petroski | 28c | 312.11$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ced…b02bbacked Vieira | 68c | 291.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Petroski | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Vieira | 70c | 278.41$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.88 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…7cd6backed Vieira | 65c | 260$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Vieira | 70c | 249.83$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.88 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…39d3backed Petroski | 58c | 243.51$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.27 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Petroski | 22c | 240$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.4 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60dd…4df2backed Petroski | 29c | 213.6$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.66 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Vieira | 72c | 198.42$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.86 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Petroski | 32c | 192.28$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.46 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Petroski | 30c | 149.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…7575backed Vieira | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…993ebacked Petroski | 27c | 140$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Petroski | 31c | 134.49$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Vieira | 67c | 130$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.63 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Vieira | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb978…a2a0backed Petroski | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c61…3d47backed Vieira | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…7e38backed Petroski | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…126cbacked Petroski | 30c | 93.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Vieira | 69c | 65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Vieira | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Petroski | 24c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Vieira | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb1…4253backed Petroski | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Petroski | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Vieira | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd3…9e40backed Petroski | 37c | 38.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Petroski | 29c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcde4…f179backed Vieira | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Vieira | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2fdbbacked Vieira | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…4acebacked Vieira | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26df…f747backed Petroski | 50c | 21.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…a7bcbacked Vieira | 74c | 18.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Vieira vs. Petroskithis page
- Avila vs. CavalcantiCavalcanti won
- Bonfim vs. SadykhovSadykhov won
- Bonfim vs. WilliamsBonfim won
- Cannonier vs. RodriguesCannonier won
- Estevam vs. AguilarEstevam won
- Hill vs. SouzaHill won
- Kattar vs. ZalalZalal won
- Matthews vs. DelgadoDelgado won
- Morales vs. SmithSmith won
- Shahbazyan vs. BudkaShahbazyan won
- Walker vs. MayesWalker won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.