UFC · resolved market
Bonfim vs. Williams
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed5f049104065e35f87a3d8cf2d4114a8e4e1a1de51bde66ee13fa18a0dea1cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bonfimof Bonfim, Williams
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $222,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $309,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $222,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Williams | 1c | 110,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…7595backed Williams | 32c | 10,000$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +80%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Bonfim | 68c | 9,139$6,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,924.45 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Williams | 28c | 1,340$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.2 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…d18bbacked Bonfim | 70c | 1,204$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.09 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Williams | 5c | 1,200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Bonfim | 65c | 1,003$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.28 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Williams | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Bonfim | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Williams | 35c | 993.1$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.58 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bonfim | 65c | 924.08$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.6 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Bonfim | 69c | 625$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.75 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Williams | 35c | 564.39$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Williams | 31c | 399.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Bonfim | 65c | 299.08$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.4 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Bonfim | 69c | 297.71$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.71 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…941abacked Williams | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Williams | 37c | 272.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Williams | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc955…059bbacked Williams | 36c | 180$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Bonfim | 71c | 169$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Bonfim | 67c | 160$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Williams | 35c | 154.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Bonfim | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f0…e173backed Williams | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Bonfim | 64c | 128.53$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345e…7b41backed Bonfim | 66c | 125$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…92debacked Williams | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Bonfim | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Williams | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Williams | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Bonfim | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf29e…1b8fbacked Williams | 34c | 95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19aa…02efbacked Bonfim | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e92…77d2backed Williams | 34c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa865…a2c3backed Bonfim | 66c | 85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…9dafbacked Williams | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d4…4cabbacked Williams | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Bonfim | 63c | 70.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Bonfim | 61c | 63.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc3…de78backed Williams | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb7…75f4backed Bonfim | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2fdbbacked Bonfim | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Williams | 34c | 56.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Bonfim | 71c | 56.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd225…c3d4backed Bonfim | 66c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bf…c049backed Williams | 38c | 53.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Bonfim | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f7b3backed Bonfim | 67c | 50.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd530…9a0cbacked Williams | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Williams | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a91…f50dbacked Williams | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61e5…7bd5backed Bonfim | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…49b2backed Bonfim | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60dd…4df2backed Williams | 32c | 33.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f3…f6b1backed Williams | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…b68fbacked Bonfim | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a28…2882backed Bonfim | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…4acebacked Bonfim | 67c | 22.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…f480backed Bonfim | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x806a…6f54backed Bonfim | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c75…eb9ebacked Bonfim | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Bonfim | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bonfim vs. Williamsthis page
- Avila vs. CavalcantiCavalcanti won
- Bonfim vs. SadykhovSadykhov won
- Cannonier vs. RodriguesCannonier won
- Estevam vs. AguilarEstevam won
- Hill vs. SouzaHill won
- Kattar vs. ZalalZalal won
- Matthews vs. DelgadoDelgado won
- Morales vs. SmithSmith won
- Shahbazyan vs. BudkaShahbazyan won
- Vieira vs. PetroskiPetroski won
- Walker vs. MayesWalker won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.