TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd348…22c4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
44
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 55 out of 100; worst UFC at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT2433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.4
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Sean Strickland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$102.74
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Jirí Procházka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.65
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Israel Adesanya · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.6
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)backed Shevchenko · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+75.4%+$18.86
UFC 322: Edwards vs. Prates (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Edwards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Wells vs. Gorimbobacked Wells · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$24.44
Luque vs. Álvarezbacked Luque · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.4
Magomedov vs. Pettisbacked Pettis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT+270.4%+$29.2
Colgan vs. Wilsonbacked Wilson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.5
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaevbacked Du Plessis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Gore backed Gore · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$29
UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicanobacked Moicano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Pereira vs. Ankalaevbacked Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.11
Gaethje vs. Fizievbacked Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$39.9
Hill vs. Souzabacked Hill · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2025, EST+100.2%+$85.09
Du Plessis vs. Stricklandbacked Strickland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$33
Weili vs. Suarezbacked Weili · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST+140%+$87.49
Adesanya vs. Imavovbacked Adesanya · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$69.02
Ziam vs. Davisbacked Davis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$41.25
Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedovbacked Nurmagomedov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$13.24
Prochazka vs. Hillbacked Prochazka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+122.2%+$73.55
Covington vs. Buckleybacked Covington · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$48
Gane vs. Volkovbacked Volkov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$70.7
All 24 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+48.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+412.8%+$80.5
Spread: Spain (-1.5)backed Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+25.4%+$8.1
Spread: France (-1.5)backed England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$14.5
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$65
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$25.2
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.6
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.5
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.3
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.2
All 9 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-33.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Artur Beterbiev vs. Dmitry Bivolbacked Bivol · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST+117.4%+$32.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$28
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$51.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.