TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

US lifts Russia sanctions before April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$315,786
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$322,472

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $315,786 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 206 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe9ab…e269backed Yes0c36,611$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31ea…0140backed Yes21c11,782$2,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,481.291650%8 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+84.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0aae…c6c4backed No65c8,815$5,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,129.081163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick58cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22cc…ef97backed Yes10c5,290$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.063718.9%7 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-56.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed Yes11c5,134$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.047356.2%41 W · 32 L+14.4wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+58.6%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No71c5,060$3,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,447.782965.5%19 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes13c4,925$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.710137.6%38 W · 63 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9bf…7424backed Yes30c4,549$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,369.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe34a…5e71backed Yes22c3,925$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.55911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick39cpaid-84.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0347…e0e5backed Yes55c3,657$2,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,026.561216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-65.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd67d…9cafbacked Yes2c3,427$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes11c3,407$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.8724258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked Yes2c3,388$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.266518.5%12 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes23c3,198$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.174429.5%13 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No78c2,911$2,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.494656.5%26 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9194…c7a0backed No73c2,863$2,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5ec…7b2ebacked Yes26c2,803$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.06850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes16c2,326$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.64729.7%7 W · 65 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes31c2,257$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed No65c2,230$1,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.662857.1%16 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes15c2,117$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.686336.5%23 W · 40 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Yes38c2,049$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.641414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick21cpaid+284.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No35c1,761$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.933164.5%20 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes28c1,750$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.4615125.2%38 W · 113 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes25c1,654$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.73438.2%13 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f65…1592backed Yes41c1,535$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.221369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.28per pick41cpaid+65%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked No71c1,417$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.122839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked No75c1,397$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.134852.1%25 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed No74c1,382$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.192050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes23c1,267$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.5412927.9%36 W · 93 L-0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd66c…97e3backed Yes4c1,211$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.532924.1%7 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed Yes50c1,208$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010241.2%42 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2964…ea1ebacked Yes35c1,142$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.781010%1 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-70.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c1,064$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1439429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes37c1,038$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.469734%33 W · 64 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25ab…84f7backed Yes48c1,029$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.46922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-39.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes3c1,020$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.325632.1%18 W · 38 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9783…1495backed Yes35c1,015$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.62837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x550d…91bebacked Yes34c949.2$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes12c938.62$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1913429.9%40 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c4c…cb39backed No62c930$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.42152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes27c913.93$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.163839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-30.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…1772backed Yes2c901.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes11c895.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.341736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4cfe…5e2fbacked No64c894.17$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.641442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked Yes14c810.93$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.732365.2%15 W · 8 L+5.6wins+0.24per pick41cpaid+75.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9118…e9dabacked Yes20c769.43$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.832931%9 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d41…b56ebacked Yes2c756.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes15c747.83$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.3412830.5%39 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ce0…b2ffbacked Yes7c720.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.232119%4 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes14c710.59$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.273250%16 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No78c685.82$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.62060%12 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes16c648.3$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1058936%32 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes28c643.37$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.077525.3%19 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No72c635.59$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.775949.2%29 W · 30 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes23c618.8$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.655127.5%14 W · 37 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0197…70dcbacked Yes15c615.22$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.932948.3%14 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+4.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes30c602.48$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.210812%13 W · 95 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x09d7…1b55backed Yes16c599.99$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad98…8733backed Yes17c579.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x141e…8c87backed Yes44c562.69$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+84.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x14a9…f391backed Yes15c555$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5230%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes38c555$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.99326.9%25 W · 68 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-7.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf91f…6ca2backed Yes26c538.07$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1391040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes4c513.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3410426%27 W · 77 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-22.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0004…ef4cbacked Yes26c500$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1291533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+49.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6459…c926backed Yes59c500$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes20c465.2$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.62234.3%1 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.20per pick24cpaid-71%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x92a7…85c0backed Yes43c461.11$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick46cpaid-73.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No66c449.2$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.37761%47 W · 30 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes20c426$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.194839.6%19 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd95f…a6b0backed Yes35c422.78$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes42c418.25$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.184045%18 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3b8…bb87backed Yes12c416$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.921010%1 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes35c414.18$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.149037.8%34 W · 56 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x811f…349ebacked Yes2c409.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-18.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8815…e147backed No74c408.03$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.06333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-54.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes38c400$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1521118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick27cpaid+48.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb35b…fd83backed Yes11c399.5$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-73.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x959a…b1afbacked No78c375.16$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.4520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-74.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes29c370.36$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.7430837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No71c365.84$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.51070%7 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x269a…0837backed No70c357.14$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.141573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.20per pick54cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c7f…be25backed No78c355.26$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.972653.8%14 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x729a…c966backed No69c350$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1102774.1%20 W · 7 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes29c349.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked Yes24c347.9$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846317.5%11 W · 52 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-61.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0dc6…bbc7backed No58c345.59$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.59580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+82.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes29c345.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc45…e0eabacked No73c343.26$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.26666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes22c333$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.63119.4%6 W · 25 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-63.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf6d1…33b8backed Yes40c327.55$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-52.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No41c319$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.991687.5%14 W · 2 L+4.4wins+0.28per pick60cpaid+63.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes30c315.29$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943727%10 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes42c299.99$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1274231%13 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes5c299.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.94634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes16c280$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.71346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+5.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbbe3…043bbacked Yes31c278.4$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.72728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-60.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8178…32d8backed No74c266.38$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.33342.4%14 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-25.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0590…256bbacked No75c265.3$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.