UFC · resolved market
Luque vs. Álvarez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09fb9e27ff2c1992d5472c637771741eae01245684de517cd3e12b61b2ad2d09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Álvarezof Luque, Álvarez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $483,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $558,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $483,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfaa…2813backed Luque | 20c | 256,363$50,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,244.7 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Álvarez | 80c | 120,000$96,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,000 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Álvarez | 80c | 44,838$35,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,967.68 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Luque | 19c | 40,232$7,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,641.76 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x132a…abe8backed Luque | 20c | 27,590$5,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,509.93 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Luque | 1c | 26,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Luque | 18c | 10,137$1,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,777.59 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Luque | 20c | 3,050$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f3…3b83backed Luque | 24c | 2,427$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +72%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb256…b6dfbacked Luque | 14c | 2,150$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Álvarez | 80c | 2,046$1,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Luque | 18c | 1,615$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.61 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Luque | 18c | 1,359$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.54 | 201 | 39.8%80 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Álvarez | 74c | 1,354$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.96 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Álvarez | 80c | 1,255$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0dc…84e0backed Luque | 17c | 1,244$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.53 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Luque | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f09…1e03backed Luque | 12c | 732.8$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Luque | 4c | 699.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7000…bf9cbacked Luque | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde46…a7afbacked Luque | 20c | 505.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…7301backed Luque | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Luque | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759b…2ab3backed Luque | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Álvarez | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Luque | 20c | 409.8$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.96 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Álvarez | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 141 | 44.7%63 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Álvarez | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Álvarez | 77c | 340$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…1778backed Luque | 19c | 321.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d0…8a25backed Luque | 26c | 307.69$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c3…3800backed Luque | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…3100backed Luque | 19c | 260$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…e7c2backed Luque | 19c | 252.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed Álvarez | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Álvarez | 80c | 242.72$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…ca3ebacked Luque | 6c | 239$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Luque | 19c | 229.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…3beabacked Luque | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…aa71backed Luque | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…0856backed Luque | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Luque | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Luque | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Luque | 19c | 184.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd2…33b8backed Luque | 10c | 180.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Luque | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Luque | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe40…2f99backed Luque | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b6…8e8dbacked Luque | 24c | 130.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Luque | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57b…73ecbacked Luque | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…fe7bbacked Luque | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31d…a406backed Luque | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0107…6a95backed Luque | 19c | 104.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed Luque | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 283 | 33.2%94 W · 189 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e92…cd3dbacked Luque | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9083…d27bbacked Luque | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 151 | 39.7%60 W · 91 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Luque | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 167 | 36.5%61 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Luque | 18c | 99.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6f…2de5backed Luque | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…6b4dbacked Luque | 26c | 94.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Luque | 19c | 92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Luque | 18c | 86.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd348…22c4backed Luque | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…501bbacked Luque | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Luque | 18c | 69.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Álvarez | 78c | 64.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8678…9e4ebacked Luque | 19c | 64.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57df…0bfabacked Luque | 19c | 62.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.24per pick | 41cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…2a5ebacked Luque | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…424bbacked Luque | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4997…2fc3backed Luque | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…39c0backed Álvarez | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Luque vs. Álvarezthis page
- Alekseeva vs. MesquitaMesquita won
- Almeida vs. Aswell Jr.Aswell Jr. won
- Diniz vs. PintoPinto won
- Figueiredo vs. JacksonFigueiredo won
- Filho vs. CarpenterFilho won
- Kowalkiewicz vs. PolastriPolastri won
- Oliveira vs. GamrotOliveira won
- Petersen vs. PetrinoPetrino won
- Ramos vs. OfliOfli won
- Rocha vs. NicollRocha won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.