TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Almeida vs. Aswell Jr.

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Aswell Jr.of Almeida, Aswell Jr.
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,113,534
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,153,688

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,113,534 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcfaa…2813backed Almeida32c999,396$318,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318,720.53036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-34.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Aswell Jr.69c200,000$137,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,00019154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Aswell Jr.68c170,391$115,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,525.0235253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Aswell Jr.68c160,768$108,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,226.233751.4%19 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Aswell Jr.68c120,362$81,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,522.997853.8%42 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Aswell Jr.68c100,225$68,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,867.751968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+30.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Aswell Jr.68c100,000$68,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,0005149%25 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Aswell Jr.69c76,769$53,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,528.226346%29 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Aswell Jr.68c33,000$22,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,46037152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Aswell Jr.69c22,417$15,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,950.817158.5%100 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed Aswell Jr.68c21,000$14,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,6503151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+30.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f05…c0b8backed Aswell Jr.67c5,313$3,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,753.423961.5%24 W · 15 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Aswell Jr.69c4,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,25016745.5%76 W · 91 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Almeida26c4,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04030039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Almeida32c3,100$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99235826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Aswell Jr.74c2,827$2,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74153956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Aswell Jr.68c2,741$1,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.8621247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Aswell Jr.60c2,645$1,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,057.792657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Aswell Jr.69c2,578$1,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.2433253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x285b…5231backed Aswell Jr.70c2,050$1,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.982259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Aswell Jr.68c2,000$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6406451.6%33 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Aswell Jr.74c1,956$1,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.6729151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a87…4e00backed Almeida31c1,706$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.62425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-49%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Aswell Jr.67c1,586$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.2130964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcbd6…bc18backed Almeida54c1,569$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8474856.3%27 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x305e…7d29backed Aswell Jr.68c1,485$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.291533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.9wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-45.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Aswell Jr.70c1,470$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4418655.8%48 W · 38 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Almeida47c1,450$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.728939.3%35 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Aswell Jr.69c1,229$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.886533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Almeida33c1,170$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.117343.8%32 W · 41 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Aswell Jr.69c1,150$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.2223850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Aswell Jr.68c1,070$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.6213953.2%74 W · 65 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22ed…002bbacked Aswell Jr.68c1,018$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.653943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Aswell Jr.69c1,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31017752%92 W · 85 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Aswell Jr.67c1,000$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3303171%22 W · 9 L+6.2wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+47%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84e0backed Almeida40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Almeida41c999.99$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41017850%89 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41e0…a8e0backed Almeida30c939$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.77052.9%37 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Aswell Jr.67c824.98$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.2421044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed Aswell Jr.52c567$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.0124847.2%117 W · 131 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Almeida33c516.42$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.4235539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Aswell Jr.69c500$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15532545.2%147 W · 178 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Aswell Jr.75c500$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.537754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Almeida31c499.96$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.996829.4%20 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40f…a5b1backed Aswell Jr.68c461.18$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.584425%11 W · 33 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-36.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x4602…3315backed Aswell Jr.74c403.58$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf0…153ebacked Aswell Jr.66c389.48$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.422759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bff…e03abacked Aswell Jr.68c376.52$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.621457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick64cpaid+3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Almeida32c350$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1123740.5%15 W · 22 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-17.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed Almeida32c307.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006756.7%38 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Almeida33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997451.4%38 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Aswell Jr.69c300$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.7939959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb575…2090backed Almeida31c299.99$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943737.8%14 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14cf…0856backed Almeida34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002055%11 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fec…c965backed Aswell Jr.68c294.11$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.12580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked Almeida4c291.76$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4222334.1%76 W · 147 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Aswell Jr.69c290.06$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.923066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x83ce…1778backed Almeida4c280$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.27233.3%24 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Aswell Jr.66c260$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.452252.9%276 W · 246 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaade…64eabacked Almeida32c235.49$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.154139%16 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Aswell Jr.64c223.99$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.0748749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Aswell Jr.69c210.94$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.61475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+29.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe827…5209backed Aswell Jr.69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Almeida32c162$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.847841%32 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0174…f66fbacked Almeida33c151.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2140…6598backed Aswell Jr.68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0613450%67 W · 67 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Aswell Jr.70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8622753.3%121 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Almeida43c128.47$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5532431.8%103 W · 221 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab43…f7b3backed Aswell Jr.69c108.7$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.716058.8%94 W · 66 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Almeida31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3156450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Almeida32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3236745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e92…cd3dbacked Almeida30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Almeida28c99.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2836655.2%202 W · 164 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14c8…ce8bbacked Aswell Jr.69c98.98$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.983268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b9e…40a5backed Aswell Jr.68c80.88$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.882065%13 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2467…c702backed Almeida41c80.73$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3510045%45 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Aswell Jr.68c80$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.65952.5%31 W · 28 L+7.0wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+37%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb6b…7b61backed Aswell Jr.71c66.77$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.24450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed Almeida33c66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.787448.6%36 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1247…9ce9backed Almeida33c61.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe063…8a04backed Almeida33c61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.136036.7%22 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7065…3bcfbacked Almeida33c59.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd774…82cdbacked Almeida34c58.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Aswell Jr.70c56.13$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.920139.8%80 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Aswell Jr.68c52.11$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6712147.1%57 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33e1…5478backed Aswell Jr.70c51.19$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.19250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-28.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Almeida32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1624862.5%155 W · 93 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdde5…a569backed Aswell Jr.70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Almeida32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169336.6%34 W · 59 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3d0…dfbbbacked Almeida33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9512…c0d3backed Aswell Jr.72c49.74$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.741457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3149…9762backed Almeida32c46.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154450%22 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Aswell Jr.68c43.01$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7620249%99 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdea0…9f7abacked Almeida33c42.42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145345.3%24 W · 29 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Aswell Jr.69c39.97$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2221144.1%93 W · 118 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb37f…6d0ebacked Almeida33c36.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x566a…881abacked Aswell Jr.68c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.56462.5%40 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf960…fcbfbacked Aswell Jr.70c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92466.7%16 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+24.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf748…7697backed Aswell Jr.71c21.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Aswell Jr.67c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.955867.2%39 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.