UFC · resolved market
Alekseeva vs. Mesquita
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dc2db2c704ffed875adbfdd5dbf6b08134fab053ac4c87e3d4d320bbff0fe1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mesquitaof Alekseeva, Mesquita
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Alekseeva | 8c | 66,079$5,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,225.74 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Alekseeva | 16c | 5,909$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.42 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Alekseeva | 17c | 2,300$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Alekseeva | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Alekseeva | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Alekseeva | 17c | 1,463$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.78 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Alekseeva | 4c | 700$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Alekseeva | 19c | 531.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Alekseeva | 19c | 420$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Alekseeva | 15c | 404$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Alekseeva | 16c | 388.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed Alekseeva | 18c | 278$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Alekseeva | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…1778backed Alekseeva | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Alekseeva | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb575…2090backed Alekseeva | 16c | 199.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaade…64eabacked Alekseeva | 9c | 158.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Alekseeva | 14c | 154.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Alekseeva | 16c | 140.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…c702backed Alekseeva | 17c | 107.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…8213backed Alekseeva | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Alekseeva | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…aa71backed Alekseeva | 15c | 99.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…e3ebbacked Alekseeva | 17c | 82.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Alekseeva | 15c | 79.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Alekseeva | 17c | 66.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe49e…bd1cbacked Alekseeva | 18c | 61.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…7f09backed Alekseeva | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…6b4dbacked Alekseeva | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alekseeva vs. Mesquitathis page
- Almeida vs. Aswell Jr.Aswell Jr. won
- Diniz vs. PintoPinto won
- Figueiredo vs. JacksonFigueiredo won
- Filho vs. CarpenterFilho won
- Kowalkiewicz vs. PolastriPolastri won
- Luque vs. ÁlvarezÁlvarez won
- Oliveira vs. GamrotOliveira won
- Petersen vs. PetrinoPetrino won
- Ramos vs. OfliOfli won
- Rocha vs. NicollRocha won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.