UFC · resolved market
Kowalkiewicz vs. Polastri
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf17875187795b1a27ef3dde9674b49e15ff395e9574cb96efe2b45a60b45e754
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Polastriof Kowalkiewicz, Polastri
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfaa…2813backed Kowalkiewicz | 17c | 68,999$12,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,029.83 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Kowalkiewicz | 16c | 6,708$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.3 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Kowalkiewicz | 9c | 5,000$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Kowalkiewicz | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Kowalkiewicz | 18c | 1,100$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.92 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Kowalkiewicz | 15c | 1,019$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.78 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Kowalkiewicz | 4c | 700$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae5…53c8backed Kowalkiewicz | 19c | 597.56$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.54 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Kowalkiewicz | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…1778backed Kowalkiewicz | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Kowalkiewicz | 19c | 460.7$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.53 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb575…2090backed Kowalkiewicz | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…d771backed Kowalkiewicz | 11c | 320$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Kowalkiewicz | 18c | 299.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Kowalkiewicz | 15c | 225.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Polastri | 74c | 192.31$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86f3…3b83backed Kowalkiewicz | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +72%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…8f05backed Kowalkiewicz | 18c | 184.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Kowalkiewicz | 24c | 105.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Kowalkiewicz | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…8213backed Kowalkiewicz | 21c | 99.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Polastri | 76c | 97.08$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df4…9e8fbacked Kowalkiewicz | 16c | 70.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122a…253abacked Kowalkiewicz | 22c | 67.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Polastri | 78c | 65.34$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…174ebacked Kowalkiewicz | 16c | 64.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…9ce9backed Kowalkiewicz | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Polastri | 79c | 26.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Polastri | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kowalkiewicz vs. Polastrithis page
- Alekseeva vs. MesquitaMesquita won
- Almeida vs. Aswell Jr.Aswell Jr. won
- Diniz vs. PintoPinto won
- Figueiredo vs. JacksonFigueiredo won
- Filho vs. CarpenterFilho won
- Luque vs. ÁlvarezÁlvarez won
- Oliveira vs. GamrotOliveira won
- Petersen vs. PetrinoPetrino won
- Ramos vs. OfliOfli won
- Rocha vs. NicollRocha won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.