UFC · resolved market
Rocha vs. Nicoll
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec04acedf676d281008901dd727784de6df2b32628ba530ef87c91091f890f88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rochaof Rocha, Nicoll
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $319,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $326,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $319,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfaa…2813backed Nicoll | 53c | 278,693$147,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147,707.5 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Rocha | 47c | 181,050$85,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95,957.09 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Rocha | 47c | 66,807$31,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,414.88 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Rocha | 47c | 50,569$23,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,695.88 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Nicoll | 52c | 7,081$3,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,681.45 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Nicoll | 53c | 6,000$3,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,180 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Nicoll | 53c | 5,273$2,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,783.68 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Rocha | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Nicoll | 52c | 2,997$1,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547.51 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ba…9c04backed Nicoll | 49c | 2,280$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.97 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Nicoll | 52c | 1,201$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.26 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Rocha | 75c | 1,190$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.74 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Nicoll | 49c | 1,018$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.09 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae5…53c8backed Rocha | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Nicoll | 32c | 899.99$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa248…19d9backed Rocha | 51c | 825.49$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.49 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Nicoll | 52c | 766.99$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.83 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Nicoll | 4c | 699.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Nicoll | 53c | 600$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Nicoll | 52c | 479.8$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.37 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Rocha | 49c | 438.78$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.78 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Rocha | 52c | 350$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda45…b320backed Nicoll | 54c | 342.59$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Nicoll | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Rocha | 49c | 249.98$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.49 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Rocha | 52c | 232$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.36 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed Nicoll | 52c | 213.8$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Rocha | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -10.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Rocha | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Rocha | 50c | 176.51$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.26 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Rocha | 48c | 175.4$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.21 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Rocha | 50c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.75 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…8cb6backed Rocha | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb18b…4e0ebacked Nicoll | 51c | 123.82$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Nicoll | 48c | 119.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…f1c9backed Rocha | 66c | 109.93$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…f66fbacked Rocha | 49c | 102.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.27 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Nicoll | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…aa71backed Rocha | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Nicoll | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21e3…af5cbacked Rocha | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Rocha | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…d771backed Nicoll | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaade…64eabacked Rocha | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…f634backed Nicoll | 20c | 70.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb575…2090backed Rocha | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…e6debacked Rocha | 51c | 60.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Nicoll | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…1778backed Rocha | 48c | 50.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Rocha | 50c | 50.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Rocha | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78f2…51a1backed Rocha | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdde5…a569backed Nicoll | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…7f09backed Rocha | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e5…1d48backed Nicoll | 51c | 39.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…aafdbacked Rocha | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b5…e04fbacked Rocha | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rocha vs. Nicollthis page
- Alekseeva vs. MesquitaMesquita won
- Almeida vs. Aswell Jr.Aswell Jr. won
- Diniz vs. PintoPinto won
- Figueiredo vs. JacksonFigueiredo won
- Filho vs. CarpenterFilho won
- Kowalkiewicz vs. PolastriPolastri won
- Luque vs. ÁlvarezÁlvarez won
- Oliveira vs. GamrotOliveira won
- Petersen vs. PetrinoPetrino won
- Ramos vs. OfliOfli won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.