TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Oliveira vs. Gamrot

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Oliveiraof Oliveira, Gamrot
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,057,718
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,136,823

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,057,718 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 529 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafba…e61bbacked Gamrot51c151,685$76,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76,760.0935253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc63…ded0backed Gamrot51c116,569$59,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,860.2650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Oliveira49c111,960$54,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,275.758940.4%36 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Gamrot50c100,000$50,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,00019154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2131…aaf2backed Gamrot51c100,000$51,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,999.81877.8%14 W · 4 L+5.1wins+0.28per pick50cpaid+70.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Oliveira49c93,242$46,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,217.637841%32 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Oliveira49c57,772$28,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,503.696451.6%33 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a4d…b7e1backed Gamrot52c56,720$29,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,452.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d0f…a318backed Oliveira49c51,990$25,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,335.121353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+37%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Oliveira50c50,000$24,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,006.3716951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x132a…abe8backed Gamrot51c44,302$22,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,594.243234.4%11 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Gamrot51c44,000$22,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,4406850%34 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Oliveira50c30,000$14,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,089.1413039.2%51 W · 79 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Oliveira50c30,000$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,0002560%15 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec65…cf87backed Gamrot52c28,626$14,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,880.751145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Gamrot53c26,470$13,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,993.395775.4%43 W · 14 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9db7…7e1fbacked Gamrot51c24,173$12,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,328.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Oliveira48c17,938$8,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,327.7611140.5%45 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fdd…5feabacked Oliveira50c16,046$8,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,023944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-28.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Oliveira48c15,550$7,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,085.992958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked Oliveira48c15,090$7,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,852.557545.3%34 W · 41 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Gamrot48c13,500$6,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,420.0211746.2%54 W · 63 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Oliveira49c12,800$6,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,5283661.1%22 W · 14 L+4.7wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Oliveira48c11,500$5,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,98037152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed Oliveira48c11,447$5,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,002.453151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+30.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Gamrot51c11,194$5,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,708.941850%9 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Oliveira54c10,890$5,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,993.37853.8%42 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Oliveira49c10,204$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,204.087653.9%41 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Oliveira49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1005632.1%18 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1499…4effbacked Gamrot52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,199.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Oliveira48c9,996$4,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,196.2233253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95fa…bf65backed Gamrot52c9,606$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb277…0aaabacked Oliveira49c9,029$4,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,604.791735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-28.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6441…139ebacked Gamrot36c9,022$3,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,229.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Gamrot51c7,839$3,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,997.9928849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f05…c0b8backed Oliveira48c7,832$3,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,080.173961.5%24 W · 15 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Gamrot50c7,750$3,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,875.026746.3%31 W · 36 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed Oliveira48c7,391$3,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,843.3111761.5%72 W · 45 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb045…d4cebacked Oliveira49c6,123$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1233342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Oliveira49c5,628$2,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,860.0920233.7%68 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x305e…7d29backed Oliveira49c5,115$2,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,608.441533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.9wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-45.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x759b…2ab3backed Oliveira50c4,940$2,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,470450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+39.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Oliveira47c4,940$2,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,596.921554.4%117 W · 98 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ee1…9801backed Oliveira48c4,882$2,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,538.92564%16 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+50.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Oliveira55c4,601$2,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,082.5553956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Oliveira48c4,583$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,383.3321044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ba…9c04backed Gamrot51c4,560$2,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,315.591020%2 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Oliveira49c4,357$2,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,223.594665.2%30 W · 16 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee2e…f422backed Oliveira50c4,251$2,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,125.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9915…3704backed Oliveira50c4,179$2,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,089.662100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+138.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2088…7a21backed Oliveira49c4,082$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.63650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+14.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x62e2…7b24backed Oliveira50c3,997$1,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,998.491758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1518…2652backed Gamrot52c3,950$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.551346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Oliveira50c3,050$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,52535826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4762…ba70backed Oliveira50c3,039$1,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,519.434946.9%23 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x291b…0cbcbacked Gamrot51c3,019$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,539.75450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+81.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbd6…bc18backed Oliveira50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5004856.3%27 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb167…b2f9backed Oliveira49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5302142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Gamrot51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5308655.8%48 W · 38 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Oliveira71c3,000$2,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86020954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Oliveira49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,529.993171%22 W · 9 L+6.2wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+47%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked Gamrot1c2,999$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.99955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Oliveira47c2,992$1,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,585.7220249%99 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Gamrot37c2,691$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.0820139.8%80 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Oliveira48c2,650$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,369.94337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9320…f7d7backed Oliveira49c2,573$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,305.784057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+27.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Oliveira48c2,306$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,205.028939.3%35 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x075f…833cbacked Oliveira49c2,194$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.03650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb1f5…e4c2backed Oliveira48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.334748.9%23 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa253…7630backed Oliveira49c2,049$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048.295240.4%21 W · 31 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x35cc…88c1backed Oliveira48c2,047$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.531776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.16per pick60cpaid+29.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x06e1…d431backed Oliveira49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.82650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9363…3608backed Oliveira50c2,012$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.246462.5%40 W · 24 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Gamrot52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0406349.2%31 W · 32 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Gamrot50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Oliveira50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0005244.2%23 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Oliveira49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0204953.1%26 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Oliveira49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02028043.2%121 W · 159 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7439…d028backed Oliveira50c1,998$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x683a…3b03backed Gamrot51c1,988$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.861353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c3…99c4backed Oliveira50c1,930$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9651100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e53…b9d1backed Oliveira48c1,913$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9941154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e17…2301backed Oliveira50c1,895$947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.393132.3%10 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+45.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa248…19d9backed Oliveira48c1,883$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.31060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87d3…b82cbacked Gamrot51c1,850$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.622128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d04…039cbacked Oliveira48c1,823$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.92366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf21a…b6e3backed Oliveira50c1,812$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.33862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+62.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Oliveira48c1,800$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93030964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8520…2a3cbacked Oliveira50c1,800$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x91fb…6f69backed Oliveira50c1,737$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.643100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+195.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Oliveira50c1,446$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7234746.8%22 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Oliveira48c1,365$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.2417850%89 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c6d…e194backed Oliveira50c1,324$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.452646.2%12 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc5f5…a33fbacked Oliveira64c1,238$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.59333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-47.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef25…dc22backed Oliveira49c1,227$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.67666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x22ed…002bbacked Oliveira49c1,214$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.293943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde46…a7afbacked Oliveira50c1,208$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.161250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda45…b320backed Oliveira49c1,119$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.37333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34cf…7188backed Oliveira49c1,110$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.11942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-31.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Oliveira48c1,078$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.9751533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.