TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xccc2…501b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
73
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Tennis, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 55 out of 100; worst Bundesliga at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT1764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+30.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$19.22
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+122.2%+$22
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+122.2%+$18.33
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+56.3%+$16.88
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+40.8%+$8.17
Aston Villa FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+85.2%+$17.04
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+143.9%+$28.78
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+328.4%+$114.93
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+33.3%+$6.67
Crystal Palace FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Watford FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$20
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Manchester City vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+51.8%+$15.53
All 17 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST1478.6%11 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick67cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mexican Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Patrick Kypsonbacked Nakashima · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+45.2%+$9.04
Chile Open: Francisco Comesana vs Andrea Pellegrinobacked Comesana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Dubai Tennis Championships: Tallon Griekspoor vs Alexander Bublikbacked Bublik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Dallas Open: Taylor Fritz vs Sebastian Kordabacked Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+61.3%+$12.26
Rotterdam Open: Hamad Medjedovic vs Felix Auger-Aliassimebacked Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+26.6%+$10.63
Rotterdam Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Felix Auger-Aliassimebacked Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+26.6%+$5.32
Open Sud de France: Ugo Humbert vs Botic van de Zandschulpbacked Humbert · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+37%+$8.51
Open Sud de France: Titouan Droguet vs Jan Choinskibacked Droguet · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+35.1%+$7.03
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovicbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+54.3%+$16.3
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakinabacked Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovicbacked Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+37%+$11.1
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Etcheverrybacked Bublik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+25%+$5
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+103.7%+$98.48
US Open: Joao Fonseca vs Tomas Machacbacked Machac · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 27, 2025, EDT+100%+$20
All 14 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT1266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.34
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.61
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$17.52
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+104.1%+$31.22
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-02-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+33.3%+$6.67
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+66.7%+$13.33
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+56.3%+$21.38
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+96.1%+$19.22
Juventus FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+37%+$11.1
Atalanta BC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$15
FC København vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+28.2%+$14.1
All 12 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Torino FC vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+58.7%+$11.75
Atalanta BC vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+34.1%+$6.82
Como 1907 vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$20
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+35.1%+$7.03
Pisa SC vs. Como 1907: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+29.3%+$5.86
Juventus FC vs. US Lecce: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+47.1%+$9.41
Cagliari Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+37%+$7.4
All 9 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-01-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+72.9%+$13.12
Real Betis Balompié vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+40.8%+$14.7
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-25.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed O'Malley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+49.3%+$10.34
Luque vs. Álvarezbacked Luque · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+33.3%+$6.67
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Morocco win on 2026-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+29.9%+$5.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Men's Final - Canada vs. USAbacked Canada · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$17
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
RB Leipzig vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.