Serie A · resolved market
Atalanta BC vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e4f83ba7198e4e9bb0b05d9b3e92062eb294f7bfdaa407aa9e54ce14acdf29d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c34…1d5bbacked Over | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…245dbacked Under | 74c | 1,100$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 14c | 1,080$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.24 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 218.72$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked Over | 45c | 138$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 73c | 120.48$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Over | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 142 | 31%44 W · 98 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…7782backed Over | 45c | 69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…501bbacked Under | 75c | 26.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…aea9backed Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.25per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atalanta BC vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 4.5this page
- Atalanta BC vs. Parma Calcio 1913: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Atalanta BC vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 1.5Over won
- Atalanta BC vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 2.5Over won
- Atalanta BC vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.