Serie A · resolved market
Atalanta BC vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd723b143402109fa7de7a2735374197e43bf6abd1355fa3233be7b85baa3b921
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Under | 68c | 40,000$27,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,347.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…9c9abacked Over | 11c | 21,719$2,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,225.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +423.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 24c | 9,660$2,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,296.89 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Over | 46c | 7,826$3,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,251.12 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 75c | 7,300$5,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,475 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 77cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 27c | 5,395$1,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,938.94 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 1,066$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.07 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 56c | 541$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.68 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 42c | 454.5$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.82 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +16.1wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x327b…28cabacked Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Under | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…1d5bbacked Over | 27c | 300$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 69c | 290$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 45c | 207.55$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.42 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 44c | 190.7$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.79 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +9.1wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 31c | 181.06$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.47 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked Over | 51c | 162$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd25e…f458backed Over | 64c | 156.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Over | 42c | 118.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Under | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 86 | 59.3%51 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 37c | 95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 50c | 74.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 63c | 69.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 42c | 60.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +14.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 32c | 55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 25c | 54.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 289 | 31.8%92 W · 197 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 163 | 40.5%66 W · 97 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…f9b8backed Over | 53c | 45.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…ce65backed Over | 44c | 40.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 142 | 31%44 W · 98 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 68c | 39.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Over | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd943…862ebacked Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…65babacked Under | 59c | 30.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 56c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Under | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atalanta BC vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 3.5this page
- Atalanta BC vs. Parma Calcio 1913: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Atalanta BC vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 1.5Over won
- Atalanta BC vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 2.5Over won
- Atalanta BC vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.