Premier League · resolved market
Watford FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76630b73ecc690c56ed1f2e3d3053baca94d80e5eab45d8f4cf5c2ffdb7f3a25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 2,047$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.73 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 79c | 2,000$1,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.35 | 157 | 72%113 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 24c | 1,009$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.46 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 64c | 772.19$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.36 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 29c | 278.17$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.67 | 241 | 58.1%140 W · 101 L | +34.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 71c | 258.11$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.85 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 77c | 186.96$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…4404backed Over | 26c | 95.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…501bbacked Under | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Under | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Under | 75c | 73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Over | 21c | 57.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…b71fbacked Over | 32c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 170 | 17.6%30 W · 140 L | -27.5wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 45c | 53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 74c | 45.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Over | 27c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Over | 53c | 37.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 40c | 33.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Watford FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Watford FC vs. Birmingham City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Watford FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Watford FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Watford FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.