TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Dubai Tennis Championships: Tallon Griekspoor vs Alexander Bublik

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Griekspoorof Griekspoor, Bublik
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$425,844
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$429,025

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $425,844 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 375 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Bublik34c55,258$18,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,723.742,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Griekspoor70c37,358$26,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,099.871,19348.9%583 W · 610 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Griekspoor55c37,079$20,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,622.867,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Bublik72c25,027$18,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,015.5627063.7%172 W · 98 L-0.8wins0.00per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6748…6c3bbacked Griekspoor26c25,000$6,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,549.98666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+34%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Griekspoor66c16,552$10,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,611.4280938.8%314 W · 495 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Bublik71c15,657$11,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,12348851.6%252 W · 236 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9963…32e4backed Griekspoor27c15,161$4,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,033.743036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1248…20f9backed Bublik41c13,136$5,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,34210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08f6…b59cbacked Griekspoor66c12,216$8,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,096.14475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+21.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Griekspoor65c11,850$7,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,145.3211,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Bublik62c11,484$7,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,068.3444754.4%243 W · 204 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Bublik39c10,042$3,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,909.951,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Bublik75c10,020$7,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,55557249.5%283 W · 289 L-32.8wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Griekspoor27c10,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,299.937147.9%34 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Griekspoor42c9,263$3,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,396.956,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Griekspoor60c7,558$4,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,056.8181349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Griekspoor28c7,105$1,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,117.7112442.7%53 W · 71 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Bublik38c6,973$2,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,620.4899044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ca…d535backed Bublik74c6,788$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0004673.9%34 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Bublik38c6,569$2,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,528.1797046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4900…4a72backed Bublik75c6,315$4,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,736.65669.6%39 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Griekspoor52c6,189$3,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,999.172,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Bublik70c6,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,20044360%266 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db0…f397backed Bublik39c5,961$2,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,300.9313647.1%64 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Bublik38c5,798$2,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,230.8873745.2%333 W · 404 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Griekspoor24c4,907$1,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,713.496,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bublik42c4,816$2,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,036.852,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7972…594fbacked Bublik65c4,640$3,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,03013260.6%80 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Griekspoor30c4,576$1,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,203.534957.1%28 W · 21 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+32.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xddd3…dba6backed Griekspoor27c4,311$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1478343.4%36 W · 47 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Griekspoor26c4,275$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,163.2276140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Griekspoor66c4,211$2,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,422.464755.2%357 W · 290 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x894e…edfcbacked Griekspoor28c4,204$1,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,026.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Griekspoor57c4,148$2,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,792.022,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed Griekspoor26c3,900$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,866.9811045.5%50 W · 60 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Bublik51c3,872$1,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,962.8631647.8%151 W · 165 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce90…d285backed Bublik56c3,597$2,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,004.084146.3%19 W · 22 L-5.6wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-25.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xec5b…aff2backed Bublik59c3,321$1,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,962.9811046.4%51 W · 59 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9379…18ffbacked Griekspoor28c3,211$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,311.711233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Griekspoor53c3,181$1,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,496.078,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Bublik73c3,000$2,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,195.6866949.6%332 W · 337 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99fb…acbabacked Bublik73c2,850$2,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,080.525764.6%166 W · 91 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc3…9d67backed Bublik36c2,778$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00039431%122 W · 272 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb9a…412ebacked Bublik41c2,668$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10013439.6%53 W · 81 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Bublik34c2,245$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.5714225.4%36 W · 106 L-10.2wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x55e7…37f6backed Bublik73c2,175$1,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5883265.6%21 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c2f…499cbacked Bublik70c2,151$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,505.4710345.6%47 W · 56 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4035…5e54backed Bublik73c2,090$1,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,525.999248.9%45 W · 47 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…8276backed Griekspoor62c2,001$1,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.4324350.2%122 W · 121 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Griekspoor27c2,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,459.989741.2%40 W · 57 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eeb…fe8fbacked Bublik72c1,802$1,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.181353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick69cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Griekspoor28c1,748$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,252.1524448.8%119 W · 125 L+17.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Griekspoor52c1,701$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.393,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf74d…9930backed Bublik73c1,693$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,23626158.2%152 W · 109 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Griekspoor57c1,600$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.562,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Bublik33c1,600$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.672,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Bublik39c1,521$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001,11842.8%479 W · 639 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x216f…03bbbacked Bublik45c1,460$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6508262.2%51 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Griekspoor27c1,437$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048.7420542.4%87 W · 118 L-12.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f07…9d0fbacked Bublik70c1,420$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.9970652.7%372 W · 334 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5067…a127backed Bublik73c1,393$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.0510756.1%60 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Griekspoor30c1,314$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.012030%6 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0c…2265backed Bublik34c1,307$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.3110456.7%59 W · 45 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9de4…7f2ebacked Griekspoor28c1,300$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93616648.8%81 W · 85 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Bublik53c1,235$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64998240.1%394 W · 588 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd52…df69backed Griekspoor30c1,135$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.4926545.3%120 W · 145 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Griekspoor28c1,065$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.991,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4913…d01bbacked Griekspoor71c1,022$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.012281.8%18 W · 4 L+4.2wins+0.19per pick63cpaid+30.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x42ce…bdcfbacked Bublik73c1,012$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.086168.9%42 W · 19 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Griekspoor66c1,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3404250%21 W · 21 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+19.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a97…66f5backed Bublik34c1,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3404860.4%29 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e2…d472backed Griekspoor40c980$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58815532.9%51 W · 104 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7753…73cebacked Bublik73c971.74$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.3723670.8%167 W · 69 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Bublik73c958.9$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70065558.9%386 W · 269 L-32.1wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Bublik52c957.46$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,13027.9%315 W · 815 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aad…20aebacked Bublik38c914.07$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.3552460.9%319 W · 205 L+0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Griekspoor27c858$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.8931332.3%101 W · 212 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe29e…fa35backed Bublik55c857.62$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.694837.5%18 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0866…a1d5backed Bublik44c839.8$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.3216339.3%64 W · 99 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3a6…a5cfbacked Bublik73c817.58$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.196651.5%34 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5739…e4dcbacked Bublik51c783.09$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001650%8 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Bublik37c701$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.875748.6%368 W · 389 L+16.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd2b…4090backed Bublik72c694.44$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008246.3%38 W · 44 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Bublik55c691.14$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.582,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51a8…0e31backed Bublik58c682.19$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.672661.5%16 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Griekspoor27c680.78$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.941,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17ff…d7afbacked Bublik37c675.68$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Griekspoor28c616.85$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.031,15844.4%514 W · 644 L+2.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c2c…90d4backed Bublik32c615.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20023454.7%128 W · 106 L+10.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdce3…eda0backed Bublik55c613.22$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick69cpaid-46%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x46ae…fdbabacked Bublik74c608.22$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501060%6 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde5a…4db5backed Bublik58c602.93$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.895736.8%21 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Bublik8c601.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5023429.9%70 W · 164 L-1.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7cc…b660backed Bublik36c600$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2167017.1%12 W · 58 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-39.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa661…eb28backed Bublik54c580$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.44047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Griekspoor28c560$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.21,02833.6%345 W · 683 L-3.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6796…453fbacked Bublik40c530$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.594447.7%450 W · 494 L+34.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Griekspoor26c528.79$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.024,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Bublik40c523.43$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.994,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.