Serie A · resolved market
Cagliari Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98acfaa9cd107dbabd669dfd6d44cdb14a627f030026a4d5978c15ca0e108498
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 6c | 4,467$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.59 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 8c | 1,714$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.96 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…b628backed Under | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 23c | 399.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 229 | 47.6%109 W · 120 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Under | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed Over | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Over | 11c | 178.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Over | 26c | 152.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c3…60d9backed Under | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 27c | 128.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b6…2c52backed Over | 12c | 110.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 23c | 108$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 23c | 106.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 12c | 99.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 455 | 47%214 W · 241 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 27c | 84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 25c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Under | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd55…b679backed Under | 76c | 45.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…d24abacked Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…501bbacked Under | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Under | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cagliari Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5this page
- Cagliari Calcio vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5Under won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5Under won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)Cagliari Calcio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.