Serie A · resolved market
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x951eda8b6cd7e240322864fddfba4496816deb1b20a2d7e8756b1e20300feb88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cagliari Calcioof AC Milan, Cagliari Calcio
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cagliari Calcio | 71c | 4,025$2,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.02 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acb…d2c7backed AC Milan | 34c | 2,932$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked AC Milan | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cagliari Calcio | 72c | 1,373$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.57 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked AC Milan | 34c | 882.35$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Cagliari Calcio | 67c | 848.5$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.01 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed AC Milan | 27c | 837.13$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.46 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed AC Milan | 33c | 755.79$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.32 | 229 | 47.6%109 W · 120 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…f4edbacked Cagliari Calcio | 65c | 612.3$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.3 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Cagliari Calcio | 66c | 607$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.38 | 372 | 50.5%188 W · 184 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…05c8backed Cagliari Calcio | 67c | 291.43$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.12 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9473…ad17backed AC Milan | 40c | 250.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…b987backed Cagliari Calcio | 68c | 241.87$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +134.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Cagliari Calcio | 67c | 235.12$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed AC Milan | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed AC Milan | 35c | 197.39$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…3e87backed AC Milan | 34c | 176.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Cagliari Calcio | 67c | 160.5$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 455 | 47%214 W · 241 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Cagliari Calcio | 62c | 147.37$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…08f1backed AC Milan | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa122…9847backed AC Milan | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df6…e553backed AC Milan | 18c | 107.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…7df0backed AC Milan | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed AC Milan | 34c | 82.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Cagliari Calcio | 66c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked AC Milan | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked AC Milan | 17c | 67.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Cagliari Calcio | 65c | 62.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked AC Milan | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Cagliari Calcio | 68c | 57.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed AC Milan | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 46.5%60 W · 69 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked AC Milan | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 179 | 55.3%99 W · 80 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba8…bc05backed AC Milan | 34c | 49.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cagliari Calcio | 59c | 38.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked AC Milan | 34c | 35.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0f…1ecdbacked Cagliari Calcio | 66c | 33.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…630cbacked Cagliari Calcio | 67c | 31.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…7949backed Cagliari Calcio | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…d57ebacked Cagliari Calcio | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f82…102ebacked Cagliari Calcio | 66c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d7…2eaebacked Cagliari Calcio | 72c | 25.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Cagliari Calcio | 65c | 16.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Cagliari Calcio | 67c | 15.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)this page
- Cagliari Calcio vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5Under won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5Under won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.