Asian League · resolved market
Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a4bd7cc553acc729e1e9c22a7fcafbf73daf808b3c286fbf87a964b0775c614
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 23c | 1,528$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.77 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Under | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 26c | 722.69$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.2 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 72c | 362.88$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 76c | 356.04$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.04 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 68c | 309.35$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed Over | 72c | 224$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 28c | 221$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 794 | 35.1%279 W · 515 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad2f…f350backed Under | 31c | 208.55$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 72c | 199.77$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…05c8backed Under | 33c | 180.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Under | 32c | 170.25$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Over | 69c | 140$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 28c | 104.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 275 | 40.7%112 W · 163 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…74cfbacked Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 25c | 94.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d7…2eaebacked Under | 24c | 79.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Under | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 28c | 66.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 307 | 50.8%156 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…501bbacked Over | 70c | 42.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe4…8f49backed Over | 72c | 33.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 67c | 30.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Over | 72c | 29.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfde4…67e4backed Over | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72db…58b9backed Over | 72c | 15.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e10…b8d4backed Over | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Over | 68c | 14.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 2.5this page
- Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 1.5Over won
- Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 3.5Over won
- Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.