Asian League · resolved market
Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7e3bdcd52e373a039f7ba9b4691bf8782ce034aa4a910eb9d87ef9701e4c957
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 75c | 21,628$16,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,175.34 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 26c | 11,283$2,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,297.81 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 25c | 7,076$1,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,307.33 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Over | 70c | 2,444$1,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.58 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f11…837cbacked Under | 36c | 2,147$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 1,825$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.26 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Under | 1c | 1,333$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd379…c870backed Over | 53c | 644.22$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6d…58f6backed Under | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 71c | 356.04$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.98 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf57…7b2fbacked Under | 58c | 312.69$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Under | 5c | 277.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 88 | 6.8%6 W · 82 L | -22.0wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -78%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…b87ebacked Over | 31c | 219.05$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 36c | 214.83$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 34c | 179.55$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f5…eb92backed Over | 52c | 173.06$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 53c | 123.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 307 | 50.8%156 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…1b85backed Over | 71c | 113.11$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 48c | 100.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Over | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +65%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…8198backed Over | 52c | 96.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Under | 76c | 92.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 73cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…4698backed Over | 50c | 83.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaef7…5af1backed Under | 29c | 79.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Over | 27c | 70.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 29c | 67.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb70c…0af4backed Under | 29c | 57.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…4bf1backed Over | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe615…506fbacked Over | 26c | 54.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd743…59bdbacked Over | 76c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…075ebacked Under | 50c | 49.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea7…6b46backed Over | 27c | 47.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Over | 50c | 43.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b6…2c52backed Over | 34c | 43.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Over | 50c | 30.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 29.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb91…ff36backed Under | 73c | 27.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 77cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e10…b8d4backed Under | 67c | 25.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeafa…467cbacked Under | 78c | 22.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa686…8fccbacked Under | 75c | 21.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…b60cbacked Under | 74c | 21.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5489…c289backed Under | 50c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04fa…526dbacked Over | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 71c | 19.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 794 | 35.1%279 W · 515 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 4.5this page
- Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 1.5Over won
- Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 2.5Over won
- Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.