Asian League · resolved market
Al Shabab Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba57a7a4dcb24b8cbd329f98df2fcc8ccbadf121a261c40da8c4dbb311e24f0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3102…187cbacked Over | 64c | 2,588$1,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.67 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 36c | 1,431$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 1,048$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.24 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 69c | 724.96$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.96 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +8.2wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 33c | 430$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.24 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 37c | 223.04$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.46 | 173 | 40.5%70 W · 103 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 36c | 185.46$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 794 | 35.1%279 W · 515 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 31c | 135$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49a1…41cbbacked Over | 80c | 125.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 33c | 124.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Over | 64c | 115.26$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 31c | 115$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 59c | 97.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 396 | 55.8%221 W · 175 L | +31.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 31c | 93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422d…98b7backed Under | 36c | 88.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 32c | 69.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under | 31c | 64.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 69c | 58.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 31c | 56.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Under | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 31c | 49.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed Over | 65c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1f6abacked Under | 31c | 37.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f3…ecacbacked Over | 65c | 31.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…501bbacked Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 69c | 22.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Al Shabab Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 2.5this page
- Al Shabab Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Al Shabab Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 1.5Over won
- Al Shabab Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 3.5Over won
- Al Shabab Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-1.5)Al Hilal Saudi Club won
- Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-2.5)Al Shabab Saudi Club won
- Spread: Al Shabab Saudi Club (-1.5)Al Hilal Saudi Club won
- Spread: Al Shabab Saudi Club (-2.5)Al Hilal Saudi Club won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.