Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Joao Fonseca vs Tomas Machac
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbac1b88615aa1e31be5db36dd6dde32efeb80ac819b2466b5b9edb2c8164431
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Machacof Fonseca, Machac
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Machac | 50c | 20,071$10,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,035.72 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…e617backed Fonseca | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Fonseca | 53c | 20,000$10,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,600 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1126…6e7abacked Fonseca | 49c | 10,384$5,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,124.63 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Machac | 47c | 8,528$3,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,530.83 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Machac | 51c | 7,603$3,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,754.44 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Machac | 67c | 4,927$3,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,611.01 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x979f…4032backed Fonseca | 43c | 3,843$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650.08 | 101 | 62.4%63 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Machac | 50c | 3,695$1,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,847.38 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Machac | 47c | 3,646$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,935.71 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Machac | 50c | 2,334$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.1 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Machac | 73c | 2,000$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Machac | 51c | 1,918$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…d849backed Fonseca | 49c | 1,918$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4d…69e7backed Fonseca | 50c | 1,772$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.93 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.5wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -40%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Machac | 51c | 1,750$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.5 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Fonseca | 50c | 932$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x519f…2af7backed Machac | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.19 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…60e0backed Fonseca | 25c | 750$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Machac | 48c | 701.13$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.13 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Machac | 57c | 680$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed Machac | 52c | 670.11$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.11 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Machac | 53c | 632.39$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.89 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +8.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Machac | 61c | 609.43$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.94 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88e…a7d4backed Machac | 79c | 532.91$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.91 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Machac | 53c | 510.57$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.89 | 173 | 38.7%67 W · 106 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Machac | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Machac | 51c | 488.56$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.56 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Machac | 50c | 486.63$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.67 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Machac | 54c | 455.48$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.96 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Machac | 55c | 450$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.03 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Machac | 53c | 447.62$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.56 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Machac | 55c | 445$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.71 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…54a7backed Machac | 50c | 434.15$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.91 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Machac | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Machac | 52c | 417.77$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.74 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Fonseca | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Machac | 51c | 354$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.46 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…6ab0backed Fonseca | 31c | 350$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.81 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Machac | 52c | 340.07$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.07 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked Machac | 53c | 328.09$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.12 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Fonseca | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +84%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…c600backed Machac | 42c | 259.38$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Machac | 50c | 255.95$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.03 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Fonseca | 56c | 239.29$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Fonseca | 25c | 211.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Fonseca | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Fonseca | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Fonseca | 53c | 189.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Machac | 53c | 186.67$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.29 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Fonseca | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Machac | 46c | 185.19$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Machac | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…f170backed Fonseca | 58c | 164.97$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.08 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Machac | 53c | 158$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.94 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Fonseca | 51c | 130$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…ea3dbacked Machac | 44c | 124.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Fonseca | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Machac | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Fonseca | 53c | 115$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Machac | 47c | 115$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.95 | 158 | 32.9%52 W · 106 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8c2bbacked Fonseca | 49c | 105.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…7564backed Fonseca | 44c | 96.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Fonseca | 58c | 86.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Machac | 57c | 67.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Machac | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Fonseca | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Machac | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…8885backed Machac | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 41cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Fonseca | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…501bbacked Machac | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Machac | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.