Serie A · resolved market

Juventus FC vs. US Lecce: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fe5ecfcaae48dbdca17dfe6dbf5f28b25e3d74cc22648ab5a5fe56d93c52d5d

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $55,387
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $62,141

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,387 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Serie A
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Over	30c	27,571$8,250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,250.24	2,538	45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L	+13.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Under	70c	10,000$7,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,000	91	50.5%46 W · 45 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75dd…171dbacked Under	72c	9,150$6,588 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,562	28	67.9%19 W · 9 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	75cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1842…b628backed Under	70c	3,551$2,473 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,077.49	22	68.2%15 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	72cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over	22c	3,135$674 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$674.24	969	42.3%410 W · 559 L	-13.0wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Under	70c	2,000$1,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$599.99	82	51.2%42 W · 40 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under	73c	1,856$1,351 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$505.16	26	88.5%23 W · 3 L	+3.8wins	+0.15per pick	74cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x67a7…86cebacked Under	73c	1,800$1,314 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$486	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	26c	1,477$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$377.82	1,981	39.8%788 W · 1,193 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Over	29c	1,412$404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$403.69	592	40.7%241 W · 351 L	-15.8wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45e1…c872backed Over	30c	900.36$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.11	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under	70c	800$560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240	101	52.5%53 W · 48 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee39…59bfbacked Under	72c	691.93$498 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$193.74	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	64cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Over	29c	680$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.2	118	37.3%44 W · 74 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under	73c	616.4$450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.43	23	78.3%18 W · 5 L	+3.5wins	+0.15per pick	63cpaid	+23.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a94…0f59backed Under	74c	405.41$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.41	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.09per pick	63cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under	70c	399.99$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	285	56.1%160 W · 125 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd94…6b1ebacked Over	15c	333.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-2.0wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Under	65c	307.69$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.69	23	91.3%21 W · 2 L	+6.4wins	+0.28per pick	64cpaid	+48.8%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over	20c	300$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	75	44%33 W · 42 L	+6.1wins	+0.08per pick	36cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under	70c	300$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	255	56.5%144 W · 111 L	+6.8wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under	70c	300$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	184	59.2%109 W · 75 L	+12.8wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Under	70c	300$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	136	48.5%66 W · 70 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3cf…493bbacked Under	78c	300$234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66	40	62.5%25 W · 15 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	69cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa354…b85fbacked Over	32c	268.38$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.88	88	63.6%56 W · 32 L	+16.1wins	+0.18per pick	45cpaid	+41.4%equal weight	66+0.14 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Under	70c	240$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72	120	48.3%58 W · 62 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under	70c	240$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72	168	51.2%86 W · 82 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Under	70c	200$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	115	50.4%58 W · 57 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Under	70c	200$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	135	50.4%68 W · 67 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Under	70c	180$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	158	47.5%75 W · 83 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Under	70c	180$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	141	55.3%78 W · 63 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Under	70c	180$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	122	53.3%65 W · 57 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under	70c	180$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	284	58.1%165 W · 119 L	+12.6wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under	75c	150$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.5	284	45.4%129 W · 155 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4c3…60d9backed Under	71c	140.85$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.85	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	62cpaid	+3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Under	70c	120$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	88	52.3%46 W · 42 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Under	70c	120$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	111	54.1%60 W · 51 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under	70c	120$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	81	48.1%39 W · 42 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Under	70c	120$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	124	53.2%66 W · 58 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Under	70c	120$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	114	54.4%62 W · 52 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under	70c	120$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	89	48.3%43 W · 46 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under	70c	120$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	109	52.3%57 W · 52 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Under	70c	120$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	77	46.8%36 W · 41 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Under	70c	120$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	102	52%53 W · 49 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Over	25c	120$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	63	23.8%15 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Under	70c	120$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	119	53.8%64 W · 55 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Under	70c	120$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	94	47.9%45 W · 49 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under	70c	120$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	154	59.1%91 W · 63 L	+11.2wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Under	70c	120$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	114	48.2%55 W · 59 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56ff…81a0backed Over	29c	107.07$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.05	27	63%17 W · 10 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	55cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	27c	104.22$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.93	910	43.3%394 W · 516 L	-14.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	70c	102.75$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.83	229	47.6%109 W · 120 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked Under	72c	100$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.23per pick	63cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Under	70c	100$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	79	48.1%38 W · 41 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Over	30c	89.6$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.88	289	31.8%92 W · 197 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked Under	70c	80$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	73	53.4%39 W · 34 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d14…1eb4backed Under	70c	71.43$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.43	21	71.4%15 W · 6 L	+2.7wins	+0.13per pick	58cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed Over	30c	71.43$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.43	208	27.9%58 W · 150 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Under	70c	70$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	124	54.8%68 W · 56 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc4…63f6backed Under	61c	69.99$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.15	60	50%30 W · 30 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Under	70c	60$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	94	45.7%43 W · 51 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Under	70c	60$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	115	51.3%59 W · 56 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Under	70c	60$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	85	52.9%45 W · 40 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed Under	70c	60$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	84	56%47 W · 37 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked Under	70c	60$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	113	54%61 W · 52 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Under	70c	60$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	92	52.2%48 W · 44 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9adf…3f2fbacked Under	70c	60$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	76	53.9%41 W · 35 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed Under	70c	60$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	81	51.9%42 W · 39 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Under	70c	60$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	116	52.6%61 W · 55 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Under	70c	60$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	72	55.6%40 W · 32 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under	70c	60$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	127	54.3%69 W · 58 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under	70c	60$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	116	55.2%64 W · 52 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Under	70c	60$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	85	50.6%43 W · 42 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Under	70c	60$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	136	50.7%69 W · 67 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Under	70c	60$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	111	53.2%59 W · 52 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4edd…b1a1backed Under	70c	60$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	110	60%66 W · 44 L	+7.8wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Under	70c	60$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	123	50.4%62 W · 61 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Over	28c	57$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.96	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	26c	55.07$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.42	248	49.2%122 W · 126 L	+3.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	30c	44.8$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	387	44.7%173 W · 214 L	-10.8wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under	70c	40.25$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.08	208	41.8%87 W · 121 L	-10.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-14%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2d7…2eaebacked Over	30c	39.28$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.98	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+38.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f3…999fbacked Under	72c	35$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	158	44.9%71 W · 87 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Under	69c	32.16$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.97	131	52.7%69 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xccc2…501bbacked Under	68c	29.41$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.41	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	70cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked Over	45c	27.8$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.51	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x380c…1099backed Under	72c	27.78$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.78	152	53.9%82 W · 70 L	-14.7wins	-0.10per pick	64cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1711…0528backed Under	73c	27.4$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.4	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	75cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Under	70c	26.13$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.84	69	49.3%34 W · 35 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7308…2b0abacked Under	80c	25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	76cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Juventus FC vs. US Lecce: O/U 3.5this page
Juventus FC vs. US Lecce: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Juventus FC vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5Over won
Juventus FC vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5Under won
Juventus FC vs. US Lecce: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)US Lecce won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Juventus FC vs. US Lecce: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event