Serie A · resolved market

Juventus FC vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f709e99ff8a735d8dcd43061105fd1458f3acebe9f540a79dd0da0729e29df8

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $41,093
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $44,285

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,093 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Serie A
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Over	76c	17,541$13,377 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,163.59	2,538	45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L	+13.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Under	23c	10,000$2,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,300	91	50.5%46 W · 45 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under	26c	4,549$1,181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,180.54	969	42.3%410 W · 559 L	-13.0wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5f…4b52backed Over	78c	2,564$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$564.1	20	90%18 W · 2 L	+2.6wins	+0.13per pick	77cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Over	77c	2,390$1,840 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$549.61	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Under	23c	2,000$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460	82	51.2%42 W · 40 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	23c	1,600$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362.99	229	47.6%109 W · 120 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Under	23c	1,499$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344.87	366	30.9%113 W · 253 L	+10.7wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc97…7d32backed Over	69c	1,159$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$359.44	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.11per pick	55cpaid	+13%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Over	69c	1,000$685 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$315	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under	23c	800$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184	101	52.5%53 W · 48 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x45e1…c872backed Over	77c	740$570 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.2	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed Under	25c	700$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	208	27.9%58 W · 150 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Over	76c	657.89$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.89	74	64.9%48 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	66cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc46d…87d9backed Over	72c	504.6$363 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.29	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	70cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under	23c	400$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	285	56.1%160 W · 125 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under	23c	300$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	255	56.5%144 W · 111 L	+6.8wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Under	22c	300$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	131	52.7%69 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Under	23c	300$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	136	48.5%66 W · 70 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under	23c	299.99$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	184	59.2%109 W · 75 L	+12.8wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0068…1b85backed Over	77c	269.27$207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.93	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dad…a040backed Over	77c	259.74$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.74	112	68.8%77 W · 35 L	+4.0wins	+0.04per pick	65cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Under	23c	240$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.2	120	48.3%58 W · 62 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under	23c	240$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.2	168	51.2%86 W · 82 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb04…3ce1backed Over	58c	207.05$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.05	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Under	23c	200$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	115	50.4%58 W · 57 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Under	23c	200$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	135	50.4%68 W · 67 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Under	23c	180$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.4	158	47.5%75 W · 83 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Under	23c	180$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.4	141	55.3%78 W · 63 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Under	23c	180$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.4	122	53.3%65 W · 57 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under	23c	180$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.4	284	58.1%165 W · 119 L	+12.6wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	36c	179.33$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.82	1,981	39.8%788 W · 1,193 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0082…e801backed Over	61c	163.93$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.93	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	75c	126.76$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.34	248	49.2%122 W · 126 L	+3.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Under	23c	120$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	88	52.3%46 W · 42 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Under	23c	120$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	111	54.1%60 W · 51 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under	23c	120$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	81	48.1%39 W · 42 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Under	23c	120$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	114	54.4%62 W · 52 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under	23c	120$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	89	48.3%43 W · 46 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under	23c	120$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	109	52.3%57 W · 52 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Under	23c	120$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	77	46.8%36 W · 41 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Under	23c	120$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	102	52%53 W · 49 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Under	23c	120$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	119	53.8%64 W · 55 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Under	23c	120$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	94	47.9%45 W · 49 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under	23c	120$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	154	59.1%91 W · 63 L	+11.2wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Under	23c	120$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	114	48.2%55 W · 59 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…298cbacked Under	32c	109.38$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-2.8wins	-0.18per pick	43cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under	24c	100$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	75	44%33 W · 42 L	+6.1wins	+0.08per pick	36cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Under	23c	100$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	79	48.1%38 W · 41 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over	66c	100$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	57cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc32e…203dbacked Over	60c	83.48$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.48	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked Under	23c	80$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	73	53.4%39 W · 34 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed Over	77c	77.92$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.92	143	51%73 W · 70 L	-10.8wins	-0.08per pick	59cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Under	24c	76$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.24	144	52.1%75 W · 69 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	39c	72.11$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.17	527	48%253 W · 274 L	-35.4wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under	23c	70.4$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.02	208	41.8%87 W · 121 L	-10.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-14%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Under	23c	70$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.1	124	54.8%68 W · 56 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4e3…0d1abacked Over	78c	64.29$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.29	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x225a…d866backed Over	65c	61.77$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.77	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.35per pick	65cpaid	+54.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Over	77c	60.1$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	150	45.3%68 W · 82 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Under	23c	60$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	94	45.7%43 W · 51 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Under	23c	60$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	115	51.3%59 W · 56 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Under	23c	60$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	85	52.9%45 W · 40 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed Under	23c	60$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	84	56%47 W · 37 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked Under	23c	60$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	113	54%61 W · 52 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Under	23c	60$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	92	52.2%48 W · 44 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9adf…3f2fbacked Under	23c	60$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	76	53.9%41 W · 35 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed Under	23c	60$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	81	51.9%42 W · 39 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Under	23c	60$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	116	52.6%61 W · 55 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Under	23c	60$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	72	55.6%40 W · 32 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under	23c	60$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	127	54.3%69 W · 58 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under	23c	60$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	116	55.2%64 W · 52 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Under	23c	60$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	85	50.6%43 W · 42 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Under	23c	60$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	136	50.7%69 W · 67 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Under	23c	60$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	111	53.2%59 W · 52 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4edd…b1a1backed Under	23c	60$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	110	60%66 W · 44 L	+7.8wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Under	23c	60$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	123	50.4%62 W · 61 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa408…d831backed Under	24c	57.5$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Under	26c	53.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.04	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7805…ead7backed Over	78c	51.28$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.28	34	61.8%21 W · 13 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	68cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa66f…f5a3backed Under	24c	42$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	171	42.7%73 W · 98 L	+6.4wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over	60c	41.67$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.67	345	53.9%186 W · 159 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1711…0528backed Over	78c	25.64$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.64	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	75cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9e…0db0backed Over	78c	25.64$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.64	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04fa…526dbacked Over	60c	25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.23per pick	56cpaid	-36%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	78c	23.01$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.06	69	72.5%50 W · 19 L	+3.0wins	+0.04per pick	68cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Over	74c	21.36$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.55	37	43.2%16 W · 21 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-18%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Over	74c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.68	289	31.8%92 W · 197 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44c9…2bd8backed Over	65c	16.82$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.82	15	60%9 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	64cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcba6…bb05backed Over	76c	15.75$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.78	97	54.6%53 W · 44 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc36…1b11backed Over	77c	15$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.45	16	68.8%11 W · 5 L	+2.7wins	+0.17per pick	52cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf18…7a1abacked Over	77c	13.09$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.01	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.12per pick	59cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Juventus FC vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5this page
Juventus FC vs. US Lecce: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Juventus FC vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5Under won
Juventus FC vs. US Lecce: O/U 3.5Under won
Juventus FC vs. US Lecce: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)US Lecce won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Juventus FC vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event