TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Senators vs. Lightning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Senators, Lightning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$59,538
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,689

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,538 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x49dd…2a32backed Senators41c9,336$3,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,856.826163.9%39 W · 22 L+8.1wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x99c2…ef35backed Senators1c2,068$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6814949.7%74 W · 75 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x40e3…0787backed Senators46c1,287$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.532331.3%101 W · 222 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Senators54c929$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.6635545.4%161 W · 194 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Senators37c869.95$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.243,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Lightning63c801.64$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.1237254.3%202 W · 170 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Senators41c686.15$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.441,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Senators38c584.21$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22223761.6%146 W · 91 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Lightning61c574.84$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.1975155.8%419 W · 332 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2105…64adbacked Lightning64c470.39$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.394252.4%22 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed Lightning61c372.19$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.2449351.3%253 W · 240 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Senators36c365.39$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.5431849.4%157 W · 161 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x034b…8bc0backed Senators38c346.95$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.843452.9%18 W · 16 L+4.3wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+35.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Senators15c320$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.21,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fdd…0661backed Lightning62c299.99$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1141050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Lightning61c292.14$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.931,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning62c282.56$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.371,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb963…cefebacked Senators39c260$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick50cpaid-78%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x23be…da4fbacked Senators40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022246.8%104 W · 118 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Lightning62c217.25$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.4684051.4%432 W · 408 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cca…a0bebacked Senators38c205$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+29%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Lightning55c199.67$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.859553.7%51 W · 44 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe87…8b1dbacked Lightning61c175$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.25966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+25.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf00f…711abacked Lightning60c152.85$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1413756.2%77 W · 60 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83d8…9a77backed Lightning61c140$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.37861.5%48 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8659…9178backed Senators36c138.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506041.7%25 W · 35 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb04d…5db7backed Senators39c138.34$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.921050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Senators38c129.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,03955.2%574 W · 465 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2366…1078backed Senators39c128.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5045954.2%249 W · 210 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5930…f3fdbacked Senators39c128.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504143.9%18 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Senators39c108.69$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.391,07954.3%586 W · 493 L+4.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2108…f78dbacked Senators38c105.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick41cpaid-73.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Senators37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3721048.1%101 W · 109 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Senators37c98.97$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6281846%376 W · 442 L+4.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2920…80bebacked Senators40c96.25$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.524945.8%114 W · 135 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdbf…c88ebacked Senators46c93.48$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4320540.5%83 W · 122 L+0.6wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x342f…e786backed Lightning63c84.14$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.13955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Lightning62c83.89$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0672444.6%323 W · 401 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2db4…f62abacked Lightning62c81.79$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.991833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-33.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1720…ef36backed Senators38c80.77$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312356.5%13 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+27.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e2a…0e15backed Lightning62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.656041.7%25 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3b7…520dbacked Senators39c76.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3028542.1%120 W · 165 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb174…d896backed Senators43c72.33$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-64.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5036…416bbacked Senators37c70.89$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2327643.5%120 W · 156 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd10a…91e9backed Lightning63c70$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.926059.6%155 W · 105 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81b7…9ccfbacked Lightning63c63.49$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.491952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4711…0d33backed Senators39c61.62$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.03425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4957…1a37backed Lightning62c59.93$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.03250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6c8…ff97backed Senators39c55.9$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-59.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07df…2506backed Lightning63c53.68$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.86933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-46.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf8c…4bc2backed Lightning61c52.46$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4625358.5%148 W · 105 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Senators39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,03755%570 W · 467 L-0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8295…2f22backed Lightning61c45.7$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6163…8507backed Senators57c43.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2519852.5%104 W · 94 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b2a…460abacked Senators39c42.87$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.721172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d5a…a3a4backed Senators40c42.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-37.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc59…a855backed Lightning62c41.94$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.942445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ea…2dd0backed Lightning62c40.32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.322857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30c7…8801backed Senators40c39.08$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.631258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9544…f3fbbacked Senators39c38.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1515549.7%77 W · 78 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5f6…2c3cbacked Lightning62c35.86$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.63333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd15b…a8c3backed Lightning62c35.48$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.48580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+51.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaad2…fa39backed Lightning62c34.97$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2781…5a72backed Senators39c33.05$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8940%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2fee…aed2backed Lightning63c32.59$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.06450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1dc…42aebacked Senators37c32.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0630%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4b6…62f5backed Senators38c32.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9999…8a5bbacked Senators38c32.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29ac…3043backed Lightning62c31.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7fb…01c2backed Lightning62c30.95$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.76666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc6a…4bc6backed Senators39c29.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.64425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04ef…d56cbacked Senators38c29.28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe65b…d530backed Senators38c29.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb9f…fe60backed Lightning62c29.07$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb290…1068backed Senators38c27.52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.46520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-65.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae36…0dc6backed Senators39c26.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.426246.8%29 W · 33 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6981…8ac5backed Lightning63c22.86$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4610659.4%63 W · 43 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc471…72a3backed Lightning62c22.58$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.58683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+52.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x67f0…2699backed Lightning62c21.8$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.28475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+32.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b48…82dfbacked Lightning62c20.97$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.972445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f41…46d4backed Lightning63c20.63$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.632100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb577…236abacked Lightning62c20.44$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.763100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+70.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x12cc…f314backed Lightning62c19.28$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99a7…2ff5backed Lightning62c18.63$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.08250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bd7…6b6abacked Lightning62c18.32$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeee8…4e62backed Lightning62c17.26$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c4…732abacked Lightning62c16.94$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.442152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65b3…1d4dbacked Lightning62c16.55$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd90d…eed2backed Lightning63c16.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.012100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf0f…dd94backed Lightning62c16.19$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.