TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Capitals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Lightning, Capitals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$231,804
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$262,673

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,804 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1ed1…b57ebacked Capitals48c116,925$56,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,124250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21e9…d1a0backed Lightning52c116,925$60,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,124250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacb4…7595backed Lightning53c24,107$12,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,254.991952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9d…68dcbacked Capitals49c17,706$8,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,675.77785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick64cpaid+31.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa074…49c3backed Capitals53c7,021$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,700757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40e3…0787backed Capitals11c4,408$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.7332331.3%101 W · 222 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x821d…0a01backed Lightning52c3,452$1,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,662.7621652.3%113 W · 103 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b41…e0d3backed Capitals51c2,148$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.824457.4%140 W · 104 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Capitals50c1,998$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.2534845.4%158 W · 190 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf42…c3b4backed Capitals49c1,880$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9211258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Capitals48c1,725$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.711,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4329…ba41backed Lightning54c1,679$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.18666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+32.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7678…102ebacked Lightning51c1,500$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7352360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+29%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3890…39e3backed Capitals49c1,498$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7341442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Lightning53c1,400$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.752437.5%9 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-38.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf10a…b2d1backed Lightning72c1,382$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.876940.6%28 W · 41 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Lightning53c1,349$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.541,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5314…910cbacked Lightning50c1,096$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.7922842.5%97 W · 131 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Capitals50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010739.3%42 W · 65 L-11.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-27.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Lightning51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49021048.1%101 W · 109 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Lightning49c905.49$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.3384051.4%432 W · 408 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Lightning52c860$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.886649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40b3…6159backed Capitals35c819.26$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.748870.5%62 W · 26 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+16.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb5d2…317bbacked Capitals47c799.98$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.9915663.5%99 W · 57 L+17.0wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+22.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8d42…9b05backed Lightning51c749.27$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.141656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Capitals28c717.73$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20021620.4%44 W · 172 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Capitals50c702.99$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.4972444.6%323 W · 401 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Capitals48c681.53$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.3997651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Capitals47c671.8$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.2192848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0e0…68a8backed Capitals49c661.22$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3242245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Capitals48c624$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.5279251.1%405 W · 387 L+21.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Lightning52c620.53$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.5319438.1%74 W · 120 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73b8…aa92backed Capitals34c588.24$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20018144.8%81 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7bbf…2760backed Capitals11c565.11$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.562540%10 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Capitals42c527.72$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22014844.6%66 W · 82 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Capitals48c517.98$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.6375155.8%419 W · 332 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04e3…69d1backed Lightning67c464.28$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.211533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-42.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3c36…52b9backed Capitals36c450.29$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Lightning68c437.03$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.5391334.1%311 W · 602 L-27.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a33…2534backed Capitals52c400$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2081346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x519f…2af7backed Capitals50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007044.3%31 W · 39 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe32e…890bbacked Lightning51c397.22$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.6436242%152 W · 210 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x686e…af8cbacked Capitals28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked Capitals48c356.43$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.3338040.5%154 W · 226 L-16.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x479c…bcbcbacked Capitals48c350$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1683542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ce…a6abbacked Lightning52c350$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1683557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b14…d18cbacked Capitals31c339.66$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.2911354%61 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3b7…520dbacked Lightning52c301.48$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.4828542.1%120 W · 165 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fca…a099backed Capitals5c299.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15525.8%3 W · 49 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick12cpaid-52.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xabff…f878backed Lightning52c240.38$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.38825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-48.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c0c…76fabacked Capitals48c227.93$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.414548.9%22 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c5…1c7bbacked Lightning51c226.6$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42ad…d3a1backed Capitals51c225.49$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Capitals49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,03955.2%574 W · 465 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8efa…f8c4backed Lightning52c203.44$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.653775.7%28 W · 9 L+7.7wins+0.21per pick55cpaid+37.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xae36…0dc6backed Lightning52c202$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.046246.8%29 W · 33 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b5…601fbacked Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x65f3…cae6backed Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5af3…3f69backed Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Capitals6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1226547.5%126 W · 139 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0961…7eb6backed Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa361…8512backed Lightning51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x938b…67bdbacked Lightning51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5207…5c59backed Lightning51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d94…0ffabacked Lightning51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f66…8938backed Lightning52c194.34$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.349750.5%49 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Lightning52c190.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.8233145%149 W · 182 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5085…ab8fbacked Lightning52c190.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.571471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+32.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe07c…551dbacked Lightning53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.682045%9 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd95b…188ebacked Capitals28c178.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf04f…a8c4backed Capitals49c160.52$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1116437.2%61 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f80…cf55backed Capitals31c159.65$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.491442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d7a…15b5backed Capitals32c155.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.33324.2%8 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-39.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f8d…1d32backed Lightning53c152.96$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.892560%15 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf061…2572backed Capitals33c151.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503842.1%16 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd26…6310backed Lightning52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Lightning51c139.41$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.3121255.7%118 W · 94 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac63…b27bbacked Capitals49c131.95$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc20c…fa4bbacked Capitals54c130$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.24650%23 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Capitals47c128.74$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5172847.9%349 W · 379 L-1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dde…6b67backed Capitals49c121.95$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.224235.7%15 W · 27 L-6.9wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-33.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning48c119.89$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.341,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Capitals48c119.66$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4460549.3%298 W · 307 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e42…ea9bbacked Capitals50c110.01$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.26771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+39.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Capitals33c103.75$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.242528%7 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-3.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4d5e…d2f6backed Capitals49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdd4…7696backed Capitals49c101.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018452.2%96 W · 88 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdbf…c88ebacked Capitals50c101$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020540.5%83 W · 122 L+0.6wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Capitals50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,03755%570 W · 467 L-0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed Capitals48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4849351.3%253 W · 240 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e20…f3e7backed Capitals50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505347.2%25 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x034b…8bc0backed Lightning51c97.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.023452.9%18 W · 16 L+4.3wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+35.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Lightning52c96.52$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5257238.1%218 W · 354 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa954…b8edbacked Lightning52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.154355.8%24 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49d1…7b96backed Capitals52c90.41$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.014725.5%12 W · 35 L-10.5wins-0.22per pick48cpaid-54.8%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x0801…438abacked Lightning52c87.4$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eac…1507backed Capitals50c81.83$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.54875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+23.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee98…f6efbacked Capitals49c80$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.21163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa5e…5a2cbacked Lightning51c80$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.21154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x641b…6116backed Capitals50c77.94$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.974555.6%25 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.