NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs Thunder: O/U 220.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe52022aa1db19510215e68f46222dd9e2071fb6205945b8383171f88b7cbab97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc91a…c6b8backed Under | 50c | 1,986$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.05 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +8.0wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…fe6bbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Over | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Over | 3c | 839.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Under | 50c | 836$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414 | 389 | 42.9%167 W · 222 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 48c | 592.98$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.35 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Over | 52c | 502.71$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.41 | 686 | 42.1%289 W · 397 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 306 | 41.8%128 W · 178 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 475.67$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.86 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Over | 54c | 475.67$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.86 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca2…55e4backed Over | 48c | 440.02$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.01 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 5c | 350$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over | 50c | 323.95$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.24 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Over | 6c | 299.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a14…e79fbacked Under | 49c | 278.48$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.02 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Under | 49c | 248.89$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.86 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Over | 52c | 248.37$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.15 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Over | 50c | 231.76$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.88 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…29f9backed Over | 53c | 219$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf90d…0b4dbacked Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 47c | 205.76$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.89 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd621…bc07backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc260…b6dfbacked Over | 52c | 194.02$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Over | 53c | 190.36$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.89 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e0…8d86backed Under | 47c | 190.36$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.89 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Over | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…15b9backed Over | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Under | 49c | 139.06$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.92 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5592…300dbacked Over | 51c | 139.06$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…65fabacked Under | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1925…1ddbbacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +418.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed Over | 52c | 96.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa273…7786backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…ce86backed Under | 49c | 95.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.66 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d6…8b0ebacked Under | 72c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Over | 17c | 69.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387a…927dbacked Over | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c21cbacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Over | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a10…023fbacked Over | 52c | 30.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 264 | 39.4%104 W · 160 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3124…014bbacked Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +21.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd8…3e5dbacked Over | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…9f56backed Under | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf49a…28ebbacked Over | 57c | 20.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c68…3e9fbacked Under | 49c | 20.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs Thunder: O/U 220.5this page
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Thunder won
- Timberwolves vs Thunder: O/U 215.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs Thunder: O/U 225.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. ThunderThunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.