Premier League · resolved market
Will Brentford vs. Manchester United end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac500bbfb685b1d460fa14ae7e61b1bbde1804c11085b85fe3a8eb36f056ef8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x002b…1927backed Yes | 23c | 10,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29db…0cd4backed No | 77c | 9,994$7,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,298.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c1…6038backed No | 77c | 1,999$1,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 78c | 1,192$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.89 | 207 | 44%91 W · 116 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…1dd2backed No | 77c | 1,178$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.05 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +7.7wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9443…e5ecbacked Yes | 24c | 1,102$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae3…fad6backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f54…8805backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 22c | 999.97$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.99 | 414 | 37.9%157 W · 257 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 2c | 815$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…af8cbacked Yes | 23c | 652.17$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 88 | 25%22 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…72f7backed Yes | 17c | 478.47$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.34 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 23c | 425$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…0f44backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 15c | 199.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Yes | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fb…31d6backed Yes | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Yes | 21c | 177.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 214 | 45.8%98 W · 116 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…fd11backed Yes | 17c | 135.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf07…5129backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87de…42bfbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df6…4462backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f94…9a4abacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2d…c13bbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc2…76c7backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked No | 76c | 77.33$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d03…4366backed No | 77c | 75.32$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fc…b47dbacked Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 23c | 72.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 368 | 45.7%168 W · 200 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf141…82d6backed Yes | 22c | 61.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3180…2634backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a5…5e6fbacked No | 77c | 50.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…0b2bbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 76c | 44.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 187 | 52.9%99 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3451…6c7fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 61 | 77%47 W · 14 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 599 | 58.9%353 W · 246 L | +26.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb61…3680backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brentford vs. Manchester United end in a draw?this page
- Will Brentford win on 2025-05-04?Yes won
- Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.