Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cdd06006758ca7f4b32ad4307456d83a7f704ecc2b3a031c2bb0350386af11a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $599,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $639,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $599,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd02…aba7backed Yes | 12c | 113,621$13,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,542.34 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45af…9158backed Yes | 20c | 88,394$17,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,626.06 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed No | 75c | 20,710$15,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,187.35 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf323…c700backed No | 79c | 20,076$15,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,188.44 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 11c | 10,480$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.58 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…8f91backed Yes | 27c | 9,877$2,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,670.9 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 70c | 6,515$4,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,925.8 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed No | 60c | 4,372$2,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760.94 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked Yes | 17c | 2,915$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.85 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…c0e9backed Yes | 12c | 2,614$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.63 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd69b…1ed8backed No | 26c | 2,600$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,913.99 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +6.4wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +110%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,781$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.45 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…1d63backed Yes | 35c | 1,769$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.08 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 1,330$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.02 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 24c | 1,268$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb4…ecb3backed Yes | 4c | 1,202$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…05b6backed No | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ede…dc09backed Yes | 1c | 968$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 811.56$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.97 | 116 | 19%22 W · 94 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa1…dc77backed Yes | 30c | 666.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 34c | 659.99$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.99 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…648dbacked No | 73c | 650.99$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x104a…d487backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 585.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e9…d7f2backed Yes | 11c | 445.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed No | 78c | 440$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.81 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…2114backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…4573backed No | 72c | 355.43$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed No | 76c | 350$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…3078backed Yes | 13c | 297.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 60c | 280$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.84 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6f…340bbacked Yes | 21c | 266.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6e…24e2backed Yes | 18c | 262.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7689…2fa9backed No | 36c | 245$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.86 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…2556backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…a8aabacked No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9918…1e3cbacked Yes | 14c | 161.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…0358backed No | 55c | 159.43$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.46 | 61 | 88.5%54 W · 7 L | +16.9wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x0da7…ca6cbacked Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20e1…d611backed No | 74c | 143.06$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 78c | 140$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…8f8bbacked No | 75c | 131.6$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked Yes | 13c | 127.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…4c08backed Yes | 16c | 102.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fd…aa95backed Yes | 11c | 102.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9af…05adbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…3a83backed Yes | 22c | 86.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes | 66c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51a3…a263backed Yes | 15c | 73.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 66c | 54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -7.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58a1…881fbacked Yes | 21c | 49.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed Yes | 26c | 48.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 71c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9b…331dbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41e…ae44backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…8e32backed No | 79c | 27.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1df…2378backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 in May?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.90 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.10 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.30 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.50 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.50 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.