Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x480aaeeb1aa86d6e14a4163c25053331224ea17f25d89dbbfa23edfbc271a46c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45af…9158backed No | 12c | 4,000$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.46 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 68c | 1,918$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.7 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 30c | 1,649$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.77 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…0c0abacked Yes | 70c | 1,649$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.77 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…05b6backed No | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed No | 30c | 630$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.7 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x249c…2783backed No | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…8876backed No | 21c | 474.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f2…caf1backed No | 50c | 402.84$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6f…340bbacked Yes | 57c | 322.85$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.83 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ee…7aa8backed No | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…1d63backed No | 14c | 168.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 19c | 115$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9af…05adbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 23c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 42c | 77.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 116 | 19%22 W · 94 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21cd…bf5cbacked Yes | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -7.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52af…b30bbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…0358backed Yes | 60c | 41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 61 | 88.5%54 W · 7 L | +16.9wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $2.40 in May?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.90 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.10 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.30 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.50 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.50 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.