Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6ca3388c09cb245f1d6a66e760223eaae9bc3211b3e75f32fd322dc05d94362
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45af…9158backed No | 20c | 6,279$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.46 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 22c | 4,551$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.96 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 67cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 54c | 4,293$2,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,975.93 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ee…7aa8backed No | 40c | 2,776$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.09 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…8876backed No | 56c | 2,722$1,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,533.65 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 61c | 2,409$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.51 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…aba7backed Yes | 59c | 2,327$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.27 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6f…340bbacked No | 11c | 1,917$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.18 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf323…c700backed Yes | 65c | 1,715$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.05 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked No | 70c | 666$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.2 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x247e…128fbacked No | 70c | 500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…0358backed No | 56c | 499.99$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.51 | 61 | 88.5%54 W · 7 L | +16.9wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 42c | 404.13$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.27 | 116 | 19%22 W · 94 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed Yes | 31c | 321.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.13 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…1d63backed No | 23c | 272.84$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 29c | 261.13$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.73 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 29c | 245.01$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.96 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.60per pick | 23cpaid | +239.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes | 47c | 152.67$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.64 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9af…05adbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…243dbacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21cd…bf5cbacked No | 39c | 92.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 21c | 67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…7116backed No | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 69c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0b…41febacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c23…3809backed Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in May?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.90 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.10 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.30 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.50 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.50 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.