TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will XRP reach $2.80 in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$326,151
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$308,675

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $326,151 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x45af…9158backed Yes20c51,111$10,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,395.815514.5%8 W · 47 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-71.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd02…aba7backed Yes17c37,273$6,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,422.36124.6%15 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-56%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf323…c700backed No62c12,461$7,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,709.442846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick35cpaid-28.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes38c7,237$2,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,743.7463835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1032…8f91backed Yes21c6,085$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,289.213847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes13c4,979$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.55214.8%1 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick16cpaid-92.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked No67c4,500$3,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,479.862466.7%16 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f55…ce1bbacked Yes49c4,133$2,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,025.171816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-67.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd69b…1ed8backed Yes26c3,327$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.74240.5%17 W · 25 L+6.4wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+110%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes23c3,096$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.7612824.2%31 W · 97 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…2ef6backed Yes25c2,500$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6257949.4%39 W · 40 L+10.2wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+35.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8390…8f8bbacked Yes46c2,386$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.2666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes29c2,357$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.7825824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a38…bfe8backed No64c2,046$1,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.6812431.5%39 W · 85 L+0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97a7…49f7backed Yes22c1,595$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.619546.3%44 W · 51 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x63e3…8876backed No43c1,545$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.551618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.21per pick40cpaid-60.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes20c1,518$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-76.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d5c…7d29backed Yes21c1,330$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.457328.8%21 W · 52 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b6f…340bbacked Yes23c1,158$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.327540%30 W · 45 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea3…f9a9backed Yes27c1,150$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x247e…128fbacked No75c900$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2251942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc631…76f6backed No29c898$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.583342.4%14 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e0b…1d63backed Yes36c829.26$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.037229.2%21 W · 51 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-38.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c57…eb35backed No79c760$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.66464.1%41 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3725…0d14backed Yes3c719.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf385…4864backed No76c611.86$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.411656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes70c602.29$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.6475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x944c…857ebacked No80c501.54$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e8…6d6cbacked No78c500$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes39c500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19515023.3%35 W · 115 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea8a…61a1backed No76c491.85$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.15875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7689…2fa9backed No44c463$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.943452.9%18 W · 16 L+4.8wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+36.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes32c400$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12760%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6d6…f810backed No65c400$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1401560%9 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick65cpaid+6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed No46c400$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2163751.4%19 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9af…05adbacked Yes33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.76018.3%11 W · 49 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-47.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x20e1…d611backed Yes56c287.98$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.27666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+32.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ad6…c088backed No79c285.3$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.913100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+84.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbabd…3335backed No64c280$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.621236.8%78 W · 134 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3d7…7504backed No33c257.23$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.239054.4%49 W · 41 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb277…d809backed Yes5c251.11$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.011241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick34cpaid-11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a2e…a373backed Yes51c250$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+44.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No45c235.1$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.678327.7%23 W · 60 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-33.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed Yes28c206.25$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.277357.5%42 W · 31 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8db…243dbacked Yes24c199.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.55115.7%8 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-38.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No70c185.18$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.0811533%38 W · 77 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-34.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd321…a77fbacked Yes28c174$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.574763.8%30 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7a2…a3c3backed Yes59c170.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002313%3 W · 20 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No40c166.8$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.5664812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x19bc…0358backed No79c159.45$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.966188.5%54 W · 7 L+16.9wins+0.28per pick61cpaid+55.3%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes27c159$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9355032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes9c152$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6812020%24 W · 96 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8281…7a9bbacked Yes36c151.83$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bbd…cfbbbacked Yes28c142.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0da7…ca6cbacked No74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.142445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcebf…bb60backed No74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.149100%9 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+39.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0cea…ad23backed Yes17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-60.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66ef…f738backed No75c106.67$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.673357.6%19 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x653b…18cebacked Yes24c104.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cf5…c050backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05c7…23cdbacked Yes20c99.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x437c…2370backed Yes42c95.24$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x513b…3f17backed Yes37c83.51$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-77.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c8f…8ff0backed Yes68c80$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.420%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x46b7…b8c5backed Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed No68c75$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.333351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f3f…b05fbacked Yes27c73.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca68…7aa9backed Yes62c64.78$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-61.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0271…57e5backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc947…1977backed Yes66c62.39$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21cd…bf5cbacked No45c55.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.56922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-57.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No72c52$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.565332.1%17 W · 36 L-7.9wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-45.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc57e…9b78backed Yes46c51$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe149…210abacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1517953.6%96 W · 83 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dc2…cce7backed No45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.443100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+77.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3a1…412ebacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44cb…e3d8backed Yes38c39.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa601…cad0backed Yes43c34.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-51.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf856…7373backed Yes51c32.59$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4854…5397backed No80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9536…ea29backed No77c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+151.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x771f…7369backed Yes63c24.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9250…55f5backed No77c23$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe420…87e4backed No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c25…4fe8backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.