Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $2.50 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb873c8473b99bf2d456a28c500a60b055a7fe0294a05bae87a628ffc68525fe0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf323…c700backed No | 3c | 18,000$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.03 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 71c | 5,188$3,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,512.77 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45af…9158backed No | 15c | 4,164$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.85 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 4,040$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ee…7aa8backed No | 20c | 3,414$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.18 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…8876backed No | 36c | 1,040$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.8 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…05b6backed No | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 72c | 459$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 11c | 399.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed No | 54c | 317.55$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.48 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked No | 20c | 213.54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 56c | 211.1$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.84 | 116 | 19%22 W · 94 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8904…80a3backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed No | 28c | 160.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…1d63backed No | 18c | 160.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9af…05adbacked Yes | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6102…f02dbacked No | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21cd…bf5cbacked No | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 107$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -7.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 55c | 72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…0358backed No | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 61 | 88.5%54 W · 7 L | +16.9wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $2.50 in May?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.90 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.10 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.30 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.50 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.