Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $1.90 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ce11d16148db30572f9356eb6fe4ca594d48dc90abee3b2400879e6c3375390
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $376,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $410,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $376,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45af…9158backed Yes | 25c | 51,909$12,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,817.47 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed No | 79c | 15,361$12,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,285.19 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…aba7backed Yes | 6c | 8,731$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.8 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69b…1ed8backed No | 54c | 8,100$4,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,731.69 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +6.4wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +110%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed No | 71c | 5,944$4,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,717.02 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 7c | 5,528$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.34 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…1d63backed Yes | 23c | 3,433$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.02 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 43c | 2,008$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.61 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…8f8bbacked No | 78c | 1,421$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 47c | 1,419$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.04 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 15c | 1,373$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed No | 48c | 729$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.92 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 590.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b03…763bbacked No | 48c | 572.92$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.92 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fd…22e8backed No | 62c | 503.23$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…8876backed Yes | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed No | 67c | 440$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.7 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…e99bbacked Yes | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6f…340bbacked Yes | 21c | 385.04$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.92 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 346.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f2…caf1backed Yes | 62c | 320.79$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb163…6062backed No | 70c | 315.37$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bb…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 308.16$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.71 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7689…2fa9backed No | 48c | 205$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.88 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed Yes | 22c | 117.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9af…05adbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 18c | 74.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…0358backed No | 55c | 65.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 61 | 88.5%54 W · 7 L | +16.9wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb6…4121backed Yes | 17c | 60.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -7.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed9…1db6backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea8a…61a1backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $1.90 in May?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.10 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.30 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.50 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.50 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.