Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8081f4bf7e817698459b4c60eadbbe82ca54b01697abf61f7f6e107172a4010
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $464,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $426,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $464,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd02…aba7backed Yes | 10c | 110,856$11,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,194.98 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…ce1bbacked Yes | 21c | 22,706$4,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,802.49 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45af…9158backed Yes | 11c | 20,000$2,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,168.83 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 12c | 16,499$2,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,024.81 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba3…65c8backed Yes | 14c | 10,000$1,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,431.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 6c | 4,474$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.4 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -92.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 18c | 3,530$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.75 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd69b…1ed8backed Yes | 12c | 3,064$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.07 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +6.4wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +110%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 3,036$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes | 13c | 2,806$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.7 | 128 | 24.2%31 W · 97 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 16c | 2,400$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes | 14c | 2,233$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.62 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3725…0d14backed Yes | 1c | 1,927$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14d9…f6e2backed Yes | 23c | 1,603$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0682…4250backed Yes | 19c | 1,581$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +75%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x676c…904cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,358$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…1d63backed Yes | 14c | 1,119$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.02 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 63c | 941$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.99 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…7badbacked Yes | 39c | 770$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 17c | 761.5$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.97 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x869a…f6b7backed Yes | 10c | 656.57$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…3078backed Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 597.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 116 | 19%22 W · 94 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea3…f9a9backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 454$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…73ccbacked No | 63c | 391.3$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x653b…18cebacked Yes | 11c | 390.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed No | 78c | 390$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 14c | 353.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e8…7a29backed Yes | 3c | 315$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 9c | 308.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2915…6669backed Yes | 6c | 294.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…243dbacked Yes | 10c | 250$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0c…eb99backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 76c | 206$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed No | 67c | 203.41$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.86 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb7…7998backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e82…d977backed No | 77c | 194.68$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -62%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b76…257dbacked Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a7…d2ccbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…9bb9backed Yes | 24c | 142.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3f…699abacked No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 12c | 127.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc772…6f2dbacked Yes | 9c | 117.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…5570backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d97…da06backed No | 66c | 80.29$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6f…340bbacked Yes | 22c | 72.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae5b…ab1bbacked No | 78c | 51.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e8…2688backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc2…cce7backed No | 70c | 40.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…cad0backed Yes | 25c | 40.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9058…4deebacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f22…b0fbbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in May?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.90 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.10 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.30 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.50 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.50 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.