Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d220793a65bfffec618c25a014d7c1a98dcc9b49058073fa69135b9f45bf023
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $656,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $566,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $656,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0fda…8405backed Yes | 2c | 116,225$1,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,867.12 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…aba7backed Yes | 3c | 108,293$3,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,021.59 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x092c…667fbacked Yes | 3c | 43,369$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14d9…f6e2backed Yes | 6c | 27,047$1,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,708.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 16,791$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…ce1bbacked Yes | 6c | 14,355$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes | 3c | 12,538$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.57 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 4c | 8,508$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.29 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc772…6f2dbacked Yes | 3c | 7,034$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 2c | 6,474$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.57 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x676c…904cbacked Yes | 3c | 5,065$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…9bb9backed Yes | 3c | 4,966$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,781$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.03 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e31…4d56backed Yes | 3c | 4,563$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,810$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 3c | 3,554$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.58 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0682…4250backed Yes | 3c | 3,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +75%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…7430backed Yes | 2c | 3,046$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.78 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8117…0371backed Yes | 3c | 3,043$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a7…d2ccbacked Yes | 2c | 2,851$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…2114backed Yes | 4c | 2,503$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669b…dd08backed Yes | 5c | 2,037$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 3c | 1,338$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0899backed Yes | 3c | 1,078$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf323…c700backed Yes | 4c | 1,024$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x653b…18cebacked Yes | 3c | 1,007$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x620c…fe91backed Yes | 2c | 872.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0942…0155backed Yes | 3c | 713.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb204…1e42backed Yes | 3c | 600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 567.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 116 | 19%22 W · 94 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba0…cee3backed Yes | 4c | 540.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x456c…4339backed Yes | 3c | 500.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0601backed Yes | 3c | 487$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc678…e738backed Yes | 3c | 438.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed Yes | 3c | 409.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b04…5b2bbacked Yes | 4c | 404.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b9…e078backed Yes | 3c | 364.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…243dbacked Yes | 4c | 350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $3.50 in May?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.90 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.10 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.30 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.50 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in May?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.