TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Reds vs. Guardians

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Redsof Reds, Guardians
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$87,119
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$94,534

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,119 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe401…7b88backed Guardians32c5,844$1,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,870.939,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe768…9d43backed Guardians20c5,253$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050.6219650.5%99 W · 97 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Guardians50c5,235$2,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,635.252,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Reds49c4,195$2,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,139.3514648.6%71 W · 75 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Guardians49c3,200$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,567.991,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Reds51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47069249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Reds78c2,316$1,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.222,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2873…ad0abacked Guardians48c2,058$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.710041%41 W · 59 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38ba…92f7backed Reds50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0009246.7%43 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Reds50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00043654.8%239 W · 197 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Guardians51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004339.5%17 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Reds49c1,893$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.1539436%142 W · 252 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Guardians50c1,629$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.4676456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x766c…2377backed Guardians40c1,497$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Guardians50c1,260$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.9341850%209 W · 209 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b6f…3838backed Reds70c1,239$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.0940547.4%192 W · 213 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Reds50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6001,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Reds49c1,067$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.9331248.4%151 W · 161 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1878…6f4abacked Reds68c1,031$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.023145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a8c…ba13backed Reds51c1,021$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.1315851.9%82 W · 76 L-12.5wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-10.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Reds50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50093240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Guardians50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50033349.5%165 W · 168 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcce…136abacked Guardians50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50029240.8%119 W · 173 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Reds80c987.2$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.881,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed Reds67c881.45$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.7714966.4%99 W · 50 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Reds76c881$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.0168656.4%387 W · 299 L+38.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Guardians49c880.3$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.3571751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Guardians50c811.43$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.561,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb142…cd11backed Guardians51c809.55$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.7618748.1%90 W · 97 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Reds78c801.88$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.4497950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Guardians50c718.35$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.1835854.5%195 W · 163 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Guardians40c631.48$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25512335%43 W · 80 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Guardians50c606$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.0645248.2%218 W · 234 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Guardians50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30033852.1%176 W · 162 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Guardians50c594.43$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.431,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb260…a44ebacked Guardians26c573.02$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.895653.6%30 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae09…fa6dbacked Reds48c520.99$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.927549.3%37 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Reds49c510.2$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.29245.7%42 W · 50 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Reds63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18542452.1%221 W · 203 L+15.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Guardians49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24595850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Guardians52c483.77$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.5686751.8%449 W · 418 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Reds49c435.1$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.1930842.9%132 W · 176 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ae7…91debacked Reds46c434.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.782657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2920…80bebacked Reds50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20023852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b88…d628backed Guardians52c399.99$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2083243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf990…90f2backed Reds51c391.42$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.73875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+30.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3ae…6e89backed Reds51c390.98$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.588100%8 W · 0 L+3.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x843d…3526backed Guardians50c389.68$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.51850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d14…bccbbacked Reds51c385.67$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.98771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e12…7348backed Guardians52c384.01$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20038455.7%214 W · 170 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Guardians53c377.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20066645.5%303 W · 363 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3a2…ecdfbacked Guardians50c373.78$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.89825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-56.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e29…4aedbacked Guardians50c369.14$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.57850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x338a…259fbacked Guardians50c364.92$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.461127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-50.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xafdf…9127backed Reds51c361.08$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.93757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdb4…7381backed Reds51c360.82$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.8785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.38per pick48cpaid+76.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb2bc…c8b4backed Reds51c360.02$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.41887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.32per pick56cpaid+55%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Guardians12c357.62$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2296133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd954…cbebbacked Reds51c356.14$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.51944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x735d…dd21backed Guardians50c351.04$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.521040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe30…2950backed Guardians50c337.56$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.78933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-36.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf387…93e6backed Reds51c331.88$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.621050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdeb…fd7ebacked Guardians50c328.62$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.31944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9657…4faebacked Guardians50c306.3$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.15955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Reds50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Reds48c299.99$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.993,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f93…e313backed Guardians52c289.69$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.6415543.2%67 W · 88 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Guardians40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10095930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Guardians40c220$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8712451.6%64 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7126…3c82backed Reds50c220$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb58…0e11backed Guardians37c200.43$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0842955%236 W · 193 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Reds50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Reds46c200$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10954941%225 W · 324 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Guardians18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3638741.1%159 W · 228 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Reds50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88cf…7d31backed Reds50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10019849.5%98 W · 100 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x976c…62b8backed Guardians50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001540%6 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Reds50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10018649.5%92 W · 94 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95ec…4b7ebacked Reds46c188.1$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.138743.2%167 W · 220 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb22a…7166backed Reds50c182$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa69e…848bbacked Reds50c168$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+56.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Reds47c166.51$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.251,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x926d…e629backed Reds50c164$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+46%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb091…2017backed Reds80c156.57$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3131254.5%170 W · 142 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe344…456dbacked Guardians50c156$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd377…a0a5backed Reds53c150.2$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.117149.7%85 W · 86 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d9e…547dbacked Guardians37c150$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.51241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5505…3a83backed Reds49c142.86$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.8610552.4%55 W · 50 L+9.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Guardians51c142.29$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.575,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce9…7a2cbacked Reds51c127.45$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4520645.1%93 W · 113 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x051d…6980backed Reds52c125.65$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.720343.8%89 W · 114 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Reds55c122.41$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2779740.4%322 W · 475 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc83c…a102backed Guardians50c122$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6140%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9a04…3606backed Guardians50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x047a…2521backed Guardians50c118$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95ba…4b34backed Guardians50c110$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1781…a0ecbacked Guardians30c109$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5165549.3%323 W · 332 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf003…b000backed Guardians50c108$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-59%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Reds50c104$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9320…95ddbacked Reds49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5113555.6%75 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.