Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x261efd52a866d45de172258009e5fd66bd2ca4f895313535b9400b5dd20252d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $872,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $901,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $872,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 468 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0856…b042backed No | 31c | 55,042$17,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,162.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2660…8ac6backed Yes | 46c | 42,544$19,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,973.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb657…6c1fbacked No | 54c | 42,544$22,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,973.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a0…2265backed No | 46c | 36,031$16,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,574.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3309…af98backed Yes | 54c | 36,031$19,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,574.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +135.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…235bbacked Yes | 74c | 34,732$25,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,884.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45fc…2bf4backed Yes | 65c | 29,332$19,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,266.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…2039backed No | 35c | 29,332$10,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,266.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf96…d7a5backed No | 45c | 27,445$12,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,350.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4f…651bbacked Yes | 55c | 27,445$15,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,350.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f7…e10bbacked No | 37c | 23,945$8,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,859.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418e…481ebacked Yes | 63c | 23,945$15,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,859.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 21c | 21,266$4,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,373.56 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6b…9390backed Yes | 70c | 18,405$12,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,430.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 66c | 15,952$10,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,475.87 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes | 66c | 14,230$9,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,863.46 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 71c | 13,791$9,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,035.14 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 69c | 13,649$9,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,224.24 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 14c | 9,529$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.85 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 68c | 9,211$6,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,928.85 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 23c | 7,868$1,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,798.85 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 0c | 7,456$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…3843backed No | 35c | 7,440$2,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,568.31 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…5827backed No | 40c | 7,000$2,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,811.67 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 49c | 6,631$3,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,245.07 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 68c | 6,000$4,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,940 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 39c | 5,925$2,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,286.62 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed No | 6c | 5,200$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +146.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1da…8f6abacked Yes | 60c | 5,159$3,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,083.53 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 68c | 4,977$3,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,592.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 43c | 4,938$2,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,130.49 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 15c | 4,700$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.99 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 39c | 4,041$1,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590.55 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 70c | 4,025$2,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.49 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes | 57c | 4,000$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd389…b048backed No | 48c | 3,708$1,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,766.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 45c | 3,705$1,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,022.13 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c5…a76fbacked No | 39c | 3,446$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f03…523dbacked No | 1c | 3,133$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…4ee0backed Yes | 70c | 3,126$2,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.85 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 79c | 3,123$2,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.85 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 67c | 2,684$1,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.17 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…ac84backed Yes | 69c | 2,637$1,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.32 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 65c | 2,519$1,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.95 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 69c | 2,513$1,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.38 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3374…5f24backed Yes | 42c | 2,485$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +140.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed No | 38c | 2,299$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.85 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…8441backed No | 32c | 2,079$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…273bbacked Yes | 62c | 2,075$1,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcae6…2e0abacked No | 15c | 2,042$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e05…a2edbacked No | 7c | 2,030$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…a125backed No | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 1,976$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed Yes | 50c | 1,946$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.66 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4540…a880backed No | 21c | 1,935$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c08…ee2ebacked No | 21c | 1,916$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…ba35backed No | 26c | 1,915$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.82 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 53c | 1,839$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.4 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…9370backed Yes | 70c | 1,804$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed No | 19c | 1,800$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.99 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 27c | 1,763$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.21 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 53c | 1,732$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.19 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 24c | 1,730$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.26 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb10…4881backed Yes | 61c | 1,640$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb916…467cbacked Yes | 69c | 1,611$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes | 47c | 1,502$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.95 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed No | 21c | 1,460$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.08 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…811abacked No | 38c | 1,455$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 48c | 1,446$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.5 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 69c | 1,354$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.77 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 45c | 1,348$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.23 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb953…16ccbacked Yes | 70c | 1,330$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 65c | 1,304$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.91 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 1,298$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.24 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 27c | 1,294$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.38 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked No | 56c | 1,242$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 70c | 1,225$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.48 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4b…3c6dbacked Yes | 77c | 1,211$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.21 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 32c | 1,200$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked No | 36c | 1,195$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 69c | 1,168$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.98 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7870…a4c5backed No | 2c | 1,153$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe5…8313backed No | 30c | 1,128$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed No | 43c | 1,109$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.71 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…54a5backed No | 18c | 1,100$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 60c | 1,064$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.68 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa832…051bbacked No | 1c | 1,044$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf414…67fbbacked Yes | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81fa…41c9backed No | 33c | 999.99$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e86…2628backed Yes | 51c | 983.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20c4…97c9backed Yes | 64c | 867.99$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.84 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9795…1328backed No | 39c | 867.58$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.91 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 49c | 837.37$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.94 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd00f…d691backed Yes | 72c | 833.33$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 31c | 809.86$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.68 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 64c | 797.79$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.42 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked Yes | 65c | 786.79$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.69 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump lower tariffs on China by May 31?this page
- Will Trump lower tariffs on China by April 30?No won
- Will Trump lower tariffs on China by July 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.